Shipping's reactions to former US vice president Joe Biden's White House victory are just about as fragmented as maritime itself.

Some brokers predict Biden's green agenda may damage the tanker sector but help shipping overall, while others say an end to the Trump trade wars may benefit bulkers.

A Biden presidency may dent tanker tonne-mile demand by removing Iran sanctions and curbing US fracking, but an end to Covid-19 will help shipping overall, Frontline interim chief executive Lars Barstad said.

"Global oil demand impact, due to the pandemic, is the foremost factor for tankers, rather than Trump or Biden," he told TradeWinds.

"We think fiscal spending and a normalisation of world trade may outweigh any of these potential negatives."

The tanker orderbook's 20-year low amid a rapidly ageing fleet also bodes well for the sector, Barstad said.

Getting greener sooner?

Biden's green agenda may indeed lower demand for tankers, especially since the president-elect has indicated that he may be pushing hard for zero carbon, according to Rebecca Jones, a research analyst for London broking house Alibra Shipping.

"During the final presidential debate, he set a new zero carbons target of 2025 — 25 years earlier than planned — which appears to have been a slip-up but nonetheless could indicate an intention to achieve this target sooner than he originally outlined," she said.

The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index has remained flat at 403 points since Friday, while the Baltic Clean Tanker Index gained nine points to 316.

Stamatis Tsantanis, chief executive of capesize bulker owner Seanergy Maritime, said a Biden administration may benefit the dry bulk shipping sector by stabilising global trade.

"Also I hope that the promised and long overdue infrastructure projects in the US will finally commence," he said.

However, Biden's green agenda may benefit overall shipping demand by putting an emphasis on slow steaming amid carbon taxes, according to Clarksons Platou Securities.

A friendlier US foreign policy under Biden should go a long way to help dry bulk shipping, said George Kulaguz, director of BRS Brokers' US office.

"As far as I know Biden will pursue a more business friendly relationship with China and the rest of the world," he told TradeWinds.

"Biden’s policies should be better for world trade and globalisation, hence better for dry bulk shipping."

In the end, Biden's presence in the Oval Office will have hardly any impact on dry bulk shipping, said John Kartsonas, founder and managing partner of asset-management advisory Breakwave Advisors.

"Reason being, the two most tradable commodities, namely iron ore and coal, have no significant relationship to US trade policy," he told TradeWinds.

"Iron ore is basically a bilateral trade between Australia/Brazil and China, so direct impact on that is unlikely.

"For coal, maybe there is a bit more to say in terms of declining US demand for coal given Biden’s pro-clean energy policy, so potentially more coal exports down the road, but it is a small part of the overall equation for dry bulk."

Boxship owners, which are seeing higher rates amid healthy supply-demand balance, may see less rate volatility with a Biden trade policy, said Rob Weiner, head of investor relations for Seaspan Corp.

"For Seaspan, this will translate into lesser of an impact given our resilient business model of long-term customer contracts," he said.

Precious Shipping chief executive Khalid Hashim told TradeWinds that the difference between a Biden presidency and a Trump one could be "no more different than daylight versus pitch black darkness”.

“Diplomacy is the art of speaking civilly with your enemies — something that the Trump presidency did not understand,” he said.

Hashim added that this will “become the norm” with Biden, rather than the exception, and that the US’ foreign policy of regime change on every continent will give way to a more “sensible policy of outreach and empathy, even when you do not agree with leaders of those countries”.

He said the US will start an infrastructure building boom that will make it “strong and truly great once again” instead of building “silly walls” at the southern border that have led to "incredible pain and suffering for families torn apart".

“In the globalised world that we live in, a healing presidency under Biden will surely strengthen demand from all corners of the globe and lead to the dry bulk market faring well, instead of constantly having to worry about the latest trade war and/or sanction destroying demand for our business,” he said.