Bulker owners are benefiting from higher exports of US soybeans but it is yet to be seen if this heightened activity can be considered a success for 2019, according to an analyst.
The country's export of the edible commodity hit an August record of 4.5 million tonnes, trumping the year-ago volume by 1.4 million tonnes, Bimco data shows. As a result, shipping volume grew by 6.5%, or 12.3 billion tonne miles, from August 2018.
So far this year, US soybean exports reached 13 million, up 58% from the same stage in 2018 but at an insufficient pace to meet 2017's total of 31.7 million tonnes.
"The coming months will determine the outcome of the year for seaborne US [soybeans] exports, with early signs that exports since 1 September seem to be following the usual pattern of increasing through September ahead of a peak in late October and November," Bimco chief shipping analyst said in a five-page report.
"This would be good news for the shipping industry, but it is currently too early to call the season a success."
US soybean exports through August outdid last year's comparable amount only because 2018 volumes were so hurt by the US-China trade war.
US exported 339,700 tonnes of soybean during the last months of 2018, less than 2% of the amount sent out during the same time in 2017, according to Bimco.
"Once relations between two trading partners have gotten this bad, it takes a longtime to restore business as usual," Sand said.
African swine flu hurt demand
US exports also took a hit through August because the African swine flu prompted a mass culling of China's pigs that hurt soybean's primary demand as animal feed, Bimco said.
"Lower Chinese demand as a result of the African swine flu mean that even without the effects of tariffs, seaborne volumes of [soybeans] imported by the Chinese may not return to levels seen in 2017 for some years," Sand said.
