A clear divide has merged between fleet developments in the capesize sector and other segments at the halfway point of 2019, says shipbroker SSY.
“Net growth in the capesize fleet has been kept in check by a surge in demolition activity over March and April. However, across the smaller vessel sizes there has been minimal scrapping,” it said.
SSY said the trend is “most apparent” in the panamax sector where newbuilding deliveries in the first half of 2019 reached 72 vessels of 5.9mdwt, only slightly below the annual target for the year of 75 vessels of 6.1mdwt.
“With just four panamaxes removed from the fleet in the first six months of the year, the lowest total for a first half since 2008, net growth in the sector since the start of January reached 2.7%,” SSY said.
“With a further 95 panamaxes due for delivery before the end of the year, even assuming slippage from scheduled delivery dates, 2019 looks set to be the strongest year for panamax deliveries at least since 2014.”
Simarly, SSY said a lack of scrapping has driven fleet growth in the geared vessel sectors with 48 handymaxes, predominantly ultramaxes, delivered in the first half of 2019.
Nevertheless, it said the pace of ultramax newbuilding deliveries has “slowed markedly” from the 2015-2017 period when it was the “fastest growing” sub-sector in the bulker fleet.
However, just four handymaxes have been scrapped since the start of the year, leaving net growth in the handymax fleet in the first half of 2019 at 1.4%.
SSY said the handysize fleet has also experienced net growth of 1.4% since the start of the year despite newbuilding deliveries of just 43 vessels.
“As was the case with the panama and handymax fleets, growth was sustained by low scrapping. Just 12 handysize bulkers were removed from the fleet in the first half of 2019,” it said.
By contrast, SSY said capesize fleet growth has been kept in check by higher numbers of demolitions, with 21 ships of 4mdwt scrapped since the start of the year.
However, it said the pace has “slowed markedly” in recent months, with no capesizes removed from the fleet in June, although three vessels have been sold for demolition, but have yet to arrive at the breakers’ yard.
“With 31 vessels, 8.2mdwt, added to the fleet over the same period, net growth has been 1.3%,” SSY said.
“Capesize carrying capacity has been further constrained by ships going off-hire due to scrubber fitting and other preparations such as tank cleaning, ahead of IMO 2020.
“With other vessels looking to position themselves in the Pacific prior to scrubber fitting ballasting vessels to the Atlantic has been curtailed, contributing to recent supply tightness.”
SSY added that if the dry bulk carrier net fleet expansion is to fall below 2018’s gain of 23.4mdwt, an “upturn in demolition interest in the fourth quarter of 2019 would be required”.
