Container freight rates to the US East Coast remain firm, but an apparent early end of peak season means rates continue to fall on most other trades.
Spot rates from Asia to the US East Coast are at $9,549 per 40-foot equivalent unit (feu) on 2 August — maintaining the trend of recent weeks in which rates have been at their highest levels for two years.
The resilience of that trade stands in contrast to rates on other East-West trades, which continue their decline.
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index dropped by 115.2 points to 3,332.67 over the past week, its fourth successive weekly fall.
Rates from Asia to the US West Coast fell sharply to $6,515 per feu on 1 August, down 20% from their peak of $8,213 a month earlier, according to the Freightos Baltic Index.
Sharp repricing
The speedy decline of spot rates led to a sharp repricing in the forward freight market for Asia-US West Coast contracts yesterday.
Prices dropped $500 on forward contracts for the fourth quarter as well as for calendar 2025 contracts, according to the Baltic Forward Assessments.
Contracts for the end of the year are below the current spot market, while those for 2025 are priced below $6,000.
That decline has not fed through to forward prices from Asia to the US East Coast.
These remain resilient, having risen in July to $7,900 for the fourth quarter and $7,200 for a 2025 contract.
“While Red Sea disruptions continue, rates are expected to remain higher than in previous years,” adds Kieren Walsh, commodity broker with Freight Investor Services.
Strike impact
That resilience may reflect lingering fears of the impact of a potential strike among port workers on the US East Coast.
The union agreement expires on 30 September and the union president has vowed to go on strike from 1 October if there is no new agreement.
“Should we see a full strike on the US East Coast, this will create significant bottleneck issues and congestion, and cause a further round of increases in spot rate levels,” writes container shipping analyst Lars Jensen in a commentary for the Baltic Exchange.
Jensen argues that the biggest contributor to easing rates may be the early beginning to peak season for North America and Europe, which started in May as many shippers sought to take longer sailings into account and avoid Red Sea-driven delays closer to the holidays.
Some shippers sought to move shipments before new tariff rollouts or ahead of potential US East Coast labour disruptions, he said.
This “may already be resulting in an early easing of peak season demand and the tight space and climbing spot rates that came with it”.
