Boxship lines should not be unduly worried about a drop-off in booming freight rates, according to Clarksons Platou Securities.

Frode Morkedal, managing director of equity research at the maritime brokerage, pointed to a 7% drop in AP Moller-Maersk's share price on 27 January as a sign of investor caution on the sector.

Some mainstream media reports have suggested a potential sharp drop to spot rates.

But Morkedal said: "The fear of lower spot rates appears to be overblown, at least in the short term."

Morkedal sees numbers as likely to normalise relatively slowly due to a continued significant tightness of ship capacity.

He argued that the recent drops have still not made Maersk's stock a cheap option, but there could be some trading opportunity for investors.

Clarksons Platou estimates Maersk's average freight rates at $2,100 per 40-foot equivalent unit (feu) in the fourth quarter, resulting in Ebitda of $2.7bn, which is in line with consensus.

Big earnings in sight

So far in 2021, average freight rates could be about $3,200 per feu, giving the giant Danish owner Ebitda of $6bn for the first three months.

Consensus expectations for the full year stand at $10bn, indicating just another $4bn of Ebitda for the rest of 2021, which Clarksons Platou believes should not be difficult to exceed.

"Some of the fear around spot rates reflects that the Shanghai Container Freight Index fell 0.6% last week — the first decline in months," Morkedal said.

"There are reports of more empty boxes being available in China again. And indeed, freight rates per box have been partly supported by various extra costs such as equipment surcharges, so if equipment [boxes] become more available, these surcharges are likely to be lower."

Congestion is good news for rates

There is still extended port congestion globally. Clarksons Research data shows 4.5% of the containership fleet is effectively idle in port queues.

Morkedal argues that this should allow carriers to keep rates from collapsing.

Demand is said to remain strong.

"Ships are full through Chinese New Year and boxes are being 'rolled', meaning left behind on the quay for a later departure," the analyst said.

The 2M Alliance of Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Co, and the Ocean Alliance group — CMA CGM/APL, Cosco Shipping and Evergreen Marine Corp — have also announced blank sailings around the Chinese New Year, which is limiting options for shippers.

Maersk has advised clients that this was done to improve schedule reliability in response to severe port congestion and equipment limitations, not due to perceived weaker demand.

Charter market still riding high

Consultancy firm Alphaliner said the charter market for vessels remained bullish, with a high level of fixing activity stimulated by healthy demand.

Charter rates continue to rise across the board, with some sizes registering higher gains than others.

Classic panamaxes are seeing record rates, with a 4,250-teu unit achieving $27,500 per day for a 12-month charter, while standard vessels of 1,000 teu are reaching $10,000 per day — the highest levels since 2011.

"The persistent short supply of tonnage across the board paves the way for further rate rises in the coming weeks, with current congestion issues in US ports, where substantial vessel capacity is held up, adding to the supply squeeze," the company said.