Blanked sailings may finally be helping to reverse the fall in freight rates on the trade from Asia to Northern Europe.

The three big carrier alliance will cancel 27% of their originally scheduled Asia-Europe sailings in the first seven weeks of the year, says Alphaliner.

Normally there would be 196 sailing from Asia to northern Europe and the Mediterranean in the period from 1 January to 17 February.

Some 53 of these have been axed due to a lack of demand, the analyst said.

Cargo volumes between Asia and Europe fell by 18.4% in November, following an even bigger drop of 25.9% in October, according to preliminary figures from Container Trades Statistics.

Alphaliner argues that the blanking of sailings before the Lunar New Year holidays shows that cargo demand out of Asia has not yet recovered.

It suggests the number could still increase if the carriers decide to blank further sailings after the week-long Chinese New Year holidays, which start on 21 January.

There are, however, tentative signs that the capacity reduction is beginning to impact freight rates.

Spot rates from Shanghai to Northern Europe rose 25% in the past week to $3,420 per forty-foot-container (FEU) on 17 January, according to the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX).

That is 60% higher than the $2,149 per feu on 14 December, the low to which rates tanked from highs of $15,000 per teu.

Drewry’s World Container Index also reported a gradual rise in rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam over the past three weeks to $1,888 per feu

The picture is however mixed as the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) recording a 2.9% drop in rates to $1,020 per teu on the trade from Shanghai to Rotterdam, its lowest level since August 2020.

Carriers are expected to continue to blank Asia-Europe sailings in the first seven weeks in response to the fall in demand, says Alphaliner.

The Alliance carriers Hapag-Lloyd, HMM, Ocean Network Express (ONE), and Yang Ming have the largest percentage of voided sailings at 36%.

The 2M Alliance partners AP Moller-Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) have blanked by 29% of westbound voyages.

The OCEAN Alliance members Cosco, OOCL, Evergreen and CMA CGM have cut 23%.

In a related development, Hapag-Lloyd will also will close its standalone China Singapore-North Europe ‘China Germany Express’ service, says Alphaliner.

The service was launched in April 2022 and primarily operated with traditional panamax tonnage of 4,050 teu to 5,100 teu.