Clarksons Research is forecasting a continuing rebound for shipping from the pandemic in 2022.
The research arm of UK shipbroker Clarksons believes the ongoing recovery will be uneven but port congestion will still be a feature next year.
Steve Gordon, managing director of Clarksons Research, said: "The encouraging recovery in shipping markets we profiled six months ago has since developed into a remarkably strong year, driven by rebounding volumes and widespread logistical disruption."
Reflecting this, the company's cross-sector ship earnings index ClarkSea has risen sharply, averaging $23,943 per day between January and August, up 55% from 2020.
By September the index had reached $38,944 per day, in the top 2% of all values recorded over the last 30 years.
There has been a strong economic recovery from Covid-19 plus $16trn of global stimulus, of which perhaps two-thirds has been spent, the company believes.
Already back at pre-Covid levels
Total seaborne trade has already returned to pre-Covid levels, with growth of 3.9% to 12bn tonnes (4.4% in tonne-miles terms) forecast for 2021.
Containerships, bulkers and gas carriers have seen the strongest performance, but the oil trade remains down 10% from before the pandemic and may not hit pre-Covid levels until late 2022.
"While risks remain from Covid-19 outbreaks, 'cooling' trends in China's industrial sector and increased taxation, the trade outlook seems broadly healthy," according to the Clarksons Research report.
Cargo growth should hit 3.2% in 2022, to reach 12.4bn tonnes, the company forecasts.
Congestion at ports is now estimated to be absorbing an additional 4% of the containership fleet and 3% of bulker capacity.
In the short term at least, continued "bottlenecks" are likely, Clarksons Research argues.
The containership market has seen all-time high freight and charter rates and the short-term outlook is firm, Clarksons Research said.
Tonnage glut coming?
One possible downside is an eventual easing of congestion, and the orderbook schedule is heavier from 2023 on.
Bulker earnings have risen to their highest levels for 13 years and Clarksons Research's supply/demand projections are still positive.
After last winter's spike, LNG carriers have seen encouraging developments and the company expects a strong winter, while the LPG sector has been better than expected but more volatile.
Car carriers are seeing good rate gains, with congestion again a factor.
Offshore oil and gas vessel prospects are improving slightly and offshore wind remains very positive, the report says.
However, with floating storage having unwound and trade down, tanker markets have been very weak and any immediate improvements are likely to be modest, Gordon said.
Shipping supply growth remains below trend, with the orderbook limited at 9% of fleet capacity. In 2008 this figure was more than 50%.
Fleet capacity is projected to grow by a moderate 3.1% in 2021 and 1.9% in 2022 to reach 1.5bn gt, Clarksons Research said.
"With the recovery from Covid-19 continuing and disruption likely to take time to unwind, market sentiment remains positive," Gordon concluded.
"While risks remain and progress may be uneven, the improving economy, limited orderbook in many sectors and the green transition seem supportive tailwinds for the moment," he added.
