The cruise industry is already reeling from the corona­virus crisis in Asia, so a major outbreak in ­Italy — which enjoys a prominent position in the Mediterranean cruise sector — could not have come at a worse time.

The last thing it needed was Sunday’s announcement that 152 people in Italy had tested positive for Covid-19.

Eleven northern towns — 10 in Lombardy, one in Veneto — went into lockdown. Local authorities imposed travel restrictions, closing gathering spots and prohibiting people from entering or leaving the directly affected areas.

But by Wednesday, there were more than 300 cases and 11 deaths reported, with positive tests recorded in Austria, Croatia, France, Germany, Spain and Switzerland that involved people who had travelled there.

The Mediterranean is one of the cruise industry’s principal playgrounds during the European summer. Hundreds of ships from Carnival Corp, Royal Carib­bean Cruises, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and MSC Cruises navigate its waters, in addition to ­independent players — Celestyal Cruises, Fred Olsen Cruises, Cruises & Maritime Voyages — as well as niche operators such as Windstar Cruises, Compagnie du Ponant and Grand Circle Cruise Line.

At the centre of the Mediterranean is Italy, where many of these ships turn round between cruises and whose numerous ports feature on most itineraries, regardless of where they begin or end.

The steps being taken to contain the virus in northern Italy will be of little comfort to cruise operators, which could face travel bans and quarantine orders that would make operating in the Mediterranean impossible.

Nervous customers

For now, they are more likely to experience widespread cancellations by nervous customers for whom incidents such as the disastrous quarantining of the 115,900-gt Diamond Princess (built 2004) in Japan loom large.

The Asian cruise market has been brought to an abrupt halt, making a large dent in the income ­projections of big cruise operators — TradeWinds ­reported last week that Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian expect the impact of the coronavirus ­outbreak in Asia to reach $555m. But the impact would be far more serious if the same situation were to play out in the Mediterranean.

February and March form the prime booking time for the upcoming summer cruise season. Even if Italy is able to contain its outbreak quickly, the damage may already have been done

The disruption to the Asian cruise sector left nearly 20 ships unemployed. Half are repositioning to ­regions deemed to be safer: some to Australia, others to the US West Coast, even more to the Mediterranean. The unexpected capacity boost caused by these Asian exiles is predicted to put pressure on pricing as operators are forced to use discounting as a lever to stimulate demand.

An exodus of a far greater number of cruiseships from the Mediterranean would be catastrophic for cruise lines’ bottom lines.

Redeployment options are extremely limited. ­Larger ships could move to Northern Europe or the Caribbean. Few other regions have the infrastructure to accommodate them.

Northern Europe would probably not be popular with North American customers, who might avoid the entire continent if the virus spreads too far ­beyond Italy.

The Caribbean option would not sit well with European customers who form the bulk of the clientele for Europe-based lines, such as Costa Cruises, Pullmantur Cruises and MSC Cruises.

Large discounts would have to be offered to fill the ships at their new locations, and the ones that remain in the Mediterranean.

More devastating would be the effect on Mediterranean niche players, whose small ships and limited market penetration outside their home turf would make it next to impossible to redeploy ships elsewhere. Many might not survive a dud season.

February and March form the prime booking time for the summer cruise season. Even if Italy is able to contain its outbreak quickly, the damage may already have been done. There is no doubt that 2020 is going to be tough for the cruise industry as it hits home that Covid-19 is no longer just an Asian problem.