More LNG-fuelled vessel orders look likely as eco-ships hit 30% of the world fleet, Clarksons Research has said.

Stephen Gordon, its managing director, said LNG as a fuel is now dominating most large ship newbuild discussions.

"We seem to have reached a tipping point and from today’s count of 835 ships (3% of fleet gross tonnage, 17% of the orderbook) an acceleration looks likely," he added.

"From a carbon perspective, we estimate an LNG-fuelled capesize would produce 60 tonnes per day of carbon, although this is complicated by issues around 'methane slip' [emissions of unburnt methane]."

Clarksons is also tracking the progress of other alternative sustainable fuels against the background of IMO 2020.

More than LPG-powered 10 ships are pending, it said, including both newbuildings and retrofits, while methanol, hydrogen, biofuels, ammonia, synthetic methane and nuclear power are all on the agenda.

But Gordon said: "It seems clear some of these will need to step up as credible solutions."

He added that for an industry that took more than 50 years to switch from wind to steam, "the impact may be no less radical and quicker!"

Big fuel switch coming

Clarksons calculates more than 4,000 vessels have now fitted scrubbers, but it still estimates there will be a 160m-tonne switch to compliant low sulphur fuel.

"On a broader level, we estimate that the fuel consumption and the carbon output of the world fleet is lower today (820m tonnes of carbon) than in 2008 (1bn tonnes), despite moving 35% more cargo and there being 60% more tonnage on the water," Gordon said.

The primary driver in this reduction has been speed - down 15-20% according to Sea/net - but a new generation of fuel-efficient vessels has helped, he added.

Clarksons now grades around 30% of world tonnage as “eco” and estimates these vessels produce 20% less carbon.