Equity analyst Michael Webber has produced his first rundown on the LNG sector since he emerged under his hotly anticipated own shop, Webber Research & Advisory, and he sees the growing orderbook as an “increasing risk”.

In “Vertical LNG”, Webber’s analysis of the marine midstream part of the LNG chain details that the current LNG orderbook stands at around 23% of the fleet.

In a note on the orderbook subtitled "Watching the iceberg", Webber’s team said that with last year’s 77 orders and the 34 logged so far this year, the picture is starting to resemble the recent 2014-2015 boom period for contracting.

The analyst, who is homing in on Golar LNG, GasLog and Teekay LNG Partners for his LNG shipping coverage, said the uncommitted portion of the orderbook has been gradually increasing, with the bulk of these vessels slated for delivery in the fourth quarter of next year and in the first half 2021.

On the plus side, Webber expects to see a tighter LNG freight market for the rest of this year and 2020, based on inefficiencies of the emerging merchant LNG market and firmer Chinese volumes.

The analyst sees a continuing improvement in LNG carrier utilisation, which will help sustain strong spot charter rates.

This plummeted from 98% in 2012, in the wake of Japan’s Fukashima disaster, to 75% in 2015 and 2016 but has been climbing since. He estimates it will reach 90% this year, inching up to 93% in 2020 and 94% the following year.

Webber said US Gulf exports continue to soak up tonnage and tighten LNG carrier dynamics.

But he inched down his new outfit's valuations on LNG carriers to quote a 10-year-old ship at $128m, a 15-year-old vessel at $96m and a 20-year-old unit at $67m.

Looking at independent shipowners, Webber shows Maran Gas Maritime has the largest fleet, closely followed by GasLog and Teekay LNG, with Golar LNG and BW LNG in fourth and fifth places.

While the bulk of their fleets are modern ships, all continue to hold a number of steam-turbine-driven vessels.

Webber maintains his position that the floating storage and regasification sector will likely remain “subdued”, with 26% of the 39-ship fleet either uncommitted or trading as LNG carriers.