TotalEnergies has outlined how it believes shipping’s decarbonisation will play out.
Unveiling its Energy Outlook 2022, the French energy major outlined what it described as “multiple decarbonisation paths” for both the hard-to abate marine and aviation sectors.
In a two-part event which will see the company shift to New York on Wednesday to talk about its strategy, TotalEnergies laid out two different demand scenarios models that stretched to 2050.
The first, dubbed “momentum”, incorporates all the commitments to meet carbon neutrality by 2050 and keeps global warming to 2.1C and 2.3C. The more ambitious “rupture” scenario keeps the figure is below 2C.
Speaking about momentum, TotalEnergies president for strategy and sustainability Helle Kristoffersen said shipping accounts for around 10% of transport emissions, with aviation on 12%.
She said a great deal of work is going on in these sectors to decarbonise citing the targets set by the International Maritime Organization.
Kristoffersen said for shipping decarbonisation will happen in two ways.
She said this will first revolve around LNG and biogas.
Starting in 2030, Kristoffersen said around a strong pickup in clean hydrogen-derived fuels including e-methanol and e-ammonia.
But she said this electrification of transport and energy end-use more broadly will need to see a massive increase in clean power. Transport represents around one-third of the increase in the period stretching to 2050. Even without hydrogen, power demand nearly doubles, she said.
Kristoffersen said there are tangible signs that the energy transition has started but the share of fossil fuels remains at over 80% so there is more work ahead.
TotalEnergies said that in the short-term trajectory of global energy demand is not going in the right direction citing the increased use of coal in the post-Covid-19 economic recovery and current market disruptions.
“More efforts will be needed to decarbonise while ensuring energy security and affordability,” the company said.
The energy major said that as the penetration of renewables increases globally, natural gas will play a key role in the energy transition to ensure power supply while pushing out coal.
“Gas will become greener over time and its growth is accompanied by carbon capture and methane emissions control solutions,” the company said.
TotalEnergies that hydrogen and sustainable liquid fuels based on e-fuels are “promising decarbonisation drivers”. But it said they will not scale up before 2030.
In the interim it sees renewable diesel and biogas picking up.
“Once at scale, hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels will increase demand for clean power and carbon abated gas by more than 10% by 2050,” the company said.