Global travel restrictions have created such a backlog of crew exchanges that it will take shipping companies until the end of the year to work through them, maybe longer, according to Hellenic Chamber of Shipping (HCS) president George D Pateras.
“It will take at least six to nine months before things return to normal,” Pateras told TradeWinds.
When bans in major shipping hubs are lifted, shipping companies will rush to change crews on thousands of ships, creating serious logistical and cash management problems in the process.
Firms will face considerable financial burdens, Pateras warned. Not only will they need to settle the balance of wages for offshore employees — they will also have to pay advances to the crews that replace them, while their vessels remain unemployed due to lack of demand.
"Lots of seafarers are stuck idle at home for a long time and they're out of cash," Pateras warned. "They will ask to receive a month’s wage ahead so they can leave some money behind before leaving home."
Another problem is whether local bureaucracies in traditional seafarer nations can handle the paperwork.
"Will the Philippine Overseas Employment Agency be able to do the administrative work so that 500,000 people can suddenly embark within a single month?” Pateras asked.
Airlines will be another bottleneck, since they cannot be expected to activate their entire fleet to handle the increased demand anytime soon.
“The ironic thing is that ship crews are in perfect self-isolation,” Pateras said.
“If 20 people on board a ship are symptom-free for more than 14 days, they should be automatically considered healthy.”
“Our crews have been on board for more than three months.”
However, he acknowledged an infection risk from outside stevedores or pilots.
HCS members are also concerned that airline companies will try to narrow some of their losses by hiking up fares, thus adding to shipping companies’ costs. Finding plane tickets alone will be hard enough.
"We need to change crews for 40 ships and, imagine, we’re just one single company," said Pateras, who is also deputy chairman of Contships Management, a boxship firm headed by his cousin Nikolas D Pateras.
"And it’s not just the crews — managers and representatives from engine manufacturers need to travel as well."
Pateras added that dealing with all these problems might take less time than finding a vaccine for Covid-19.
"I hope this will happen soon, it would be a real game changer," he said.
