Saturday's drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure may not be a "game-changer" for the tanker sector since return to normal output is expected soon, a prominent analyst says.

Key processing units in Quibab and Khurais were disabled, threatening to take 5.7mn barrels per day — or 5% of global output — off the market.

Saudi Arabia calmed supply-demand fears Tuesday, however, by saying 70% of lost output would be restored in days with inventories filling the gap, Evercore's Jon Chappell said.

"Based on what we know today, it shouldn’t impact the market at all," he told TradeWinds.

"However, if additional attacks take place or if there is a significant retaliation and the geopolitical landscape changes again, then we’ll have to reassess what it means to trade flows, ton miles or floating storage."

Still bullish

Evercore maintains a bullish outlook on the tanker sector and its tanker rate forecasts, expecting this year's average VLCC prices to rise 114% over last year to $23,967 per day.

The investment firm predicts LR-2 rates to jump 95% to $16,973 per day and handymax fixtures to earn 102% more at $12,956 per day.

Chappell further noted that US, China and International Energy Agency walked back plans to use strategic petroleum reserves, relieving anticipated stress on tonne-miles.

"Attacks are not a game-changer (as it stands today), nor do they change our fundamental bullish outlook," he said Wednesday in a client's note.

"Immediately following the attacks, fears of lost cargoes, demand destruction, and potential to mute IMO 2020 drove some investors to the sidelines.

"But with clarity that volumes will only be modestly impacted and oil prices normalizing, the tanker supply-demand balance still looks set to tighten driving a seasonal and cyclical increase in rates in the fourth quarter."

Nonetheless, possible higher volumes from US, West Africa and Latin America could lift tonne-mile demand, Jefferies analyst Randy Giveans said.

"In the medium-term, with increased tensions in the Middle East, we believe importing nations of both crude and products will increase inventory levels just in case of further supply shocks going forward," he told TradeWinds.

Still a risk-premium

The tanker and oil sectors are still prone to fallout from the attacks if full output is quickly restored, Chappell said.

"There will likely be a risk-premium in the oil markets going forward that, on the one hand will elevate bunker costs, but on the other should inspire consuming nations to continue to diversify sources of oil, to the benefit of tonne-miles," he said in the note.

That uncertainty should not impact tanker stocks, however, because rate momentum will most likely dictate their performance, he told TradeWinds.