The cruise industry is unlikely to get its groove back until its customers and external partners believe it is completely coronavirus-proofed. This would probably mean that a vaccine against the virus would have to be widely available.

Although no cure nor vaccine for Covid-19 has yet been developed, cruise lines are putting out feelers about a limited restart of operations in August.

The big question is whether there will be any demand from potential customers willing to risk sailing on vessels that have been painted as plague ships by the mainstream media.

Announcements issued by various cruise operators have detailed the Covid-19 precautions planned, and given a glimpse of what cruising might look like when sailings resume.

According to these announcements, passengers can look forward to stringent medical screening, strict social distancing and being served by staff wearing personal protective equipment, such as face masks.

While these measures may reduce the possibility of another major outbreak on a ship, they are unlikely to encourage the carefree, fun environment that is crusing's main draw.

I don't see people taking discretionary holidays in hazmat suits. Nor do I see social distancing being practised or practical on a ship at sea

Senior executive at a large US-based cruise booking agency

“I think it puts off more people than it inspires,” a senior executive at a large US-based cruise booking agency told TradeWinds.

“I don't see people taking discretionary holidays in hazmat suits. Nor do I see social distancing being practised or practical on a ship at sea.”

After a series of deadly Covid-19 outbreaks on board cruiseships, critics of the industry remain sceptical that lines have the ability to assure safety for passengers and crew without the widespread availability of tests, which so far does not exist.

Passengers are unlikely to want to step foot on cruiseships until the industry can guarantee they are totally safe.

It is not just passengers that the cruise lines will have to convince. They will also need to win over the authorities that control access to the ports where cruiseships call.

The US Centre for Disease Control (CDC) recently extended its “no sail order” banning all cruise travel in the US until the end of July, and the ban could be extended.

A CDC spokeswoman told the New York Times early in May that it had not consulted with any of the lines on the time frame for restarting cruises, nor did it have enough information to say when it will be safe to resume sailing.

Many international cruise ports remain firmly shut to cruiseships. They are unlikely to welcome shiploads of tourists until the lines can guarantee they do not pose a risk to the local population.

Flight concerns

Also at stake are the flights for getting passengers and crew to and from ships.

Media reports indicate that airlines are permanently retiring their larger aircraft and, in the post-pandemic operating environment, will use smaller, more efficient planes that carry fewer passengers.

With corporate travel expected to recover before leisure trips, securing the limited number of available seats will come at a higher cost. This will be of little comfort to cruise lines that need to secure a large volume of airlift at a low cost.

In the end, the comeback for mass international cruise travel clearly hinges on a safe and effective Covid-19 vaccine being developed. For the cruise industry, that cannot come fast enough.