The maritime world has every reason to believe that 2021 will be a better year than 2020 — if only because the industry is now battle-hardened and prepared for pretty much anything.

The head of Italian oil company Eni described the last 12 months as “the year of war” — and that is a fair a way of evaluating it.

But there is now hope of peace as various vaccines are rolled out and policymakers continue to effectively bankroll parts of the world economy.

The year will certainly start on a positive note with the inauguration of a more sober head of state in Washington on 20 January.

Those who feed on volatility may mourn the passing reign of the quixotic nationalist Donald Trump but most of us are better off without him.

Incoming Joe Biden can be expected to put the US back at the heart of a multilateral world, not least by rejoining the Paris Agreement on climate change.

The Democrat leader has promised a green revolution, which could involve carbon markets being trialled in the US.

He can also be expected to dial down the rhetoric with China that has led to a trade war that upset the container trades.

Biden is also looking to restart a dialogue with Tehran, which could reopen the way to Iranian oil exports with sanctions lifted.

Normalising relations

Normalising US relations with Iran could reduce the likelihood of unexpected incidents such as the Iranians seizing a South Korean tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran claims the ongoing row is about water pollution but others believe Iran is really trying to hurt an ally of the US.

Also up for election this year are parliamentarians in Russia. This will be seen as a vote on leader Vladimir Putin, now extraordinarily in his 20th year of power.

Across the border, the Communist Party of China will hold its 100th anniversary on 1 July. Do not expect any huge policy changes but do expect the Middle Kingdom to continue to exert its growing political and economic power worldwide.

Beijing will certainly continue to go green: Xi Jinping will unveil detailed plans for a national carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) for inland power plants in 2021.

There is no word yet on decarbonising a local maritime industry that has become world leading over past decades.

The biggest uncertainty for the economy and world trade is Covid-19 and its new variant strains that have forced renewed lockdowns

And, in September, the steadiest anchor in European politics will be removed as Angela Merkel stands down in Germany.

A new coalition government in Berlin is expected to be formed, with the Green Party prominent for the first time.

This will likely increase pressure on the European Commission to introduce its own ETS for shipping as of 1 January next year.

The biggest uncertainty for the economy and world trade is Covid-19 and its new variant strains that have forced renewed lockdowns.

Promises of the mass rollout of vaccines combined with central bank financial bailouts have kept stock markets flying high.

It has been data giants, fintech firms, big pharma and renewable energy companies that have led the charge while oil and shipping have suffered badly.

Last year was a poor one for maritime businesses raising cash in the capital markets. But 2021 has started with something to celebrate.

Public offering

Idan Ofer-backed Israeli liner company Zim is pressing ahead with plans to become the first shipping business to list in New York — since 2018.

Fearnley Securities estimated less than $4bn was raised by shipping overall in the past 12 months, down by a half on 2019.

That figure did not include the emergency cash raised by the cruiseship sector, whose fleet has been brought to a standstill by Covid-19.

The global shipbuilding industry also saw an annual halving in new orders, according to Clarksons, until a rush in the past few weeks.

Few expect 2021 to bring either a rash of new orders or a great deal of capital market activity as shipowners remain cautious around Covid-19 and trade prospects.

However, experts agree that tightening environmental regulations and changing charterer demands will force fleet renewal. The only question is when?

Meanwhile, tanker owners will be expecting oil demand to pick up in the year ahead but remain below 2019 levels.

Dry bulk operators will also be looking for modest improvements from a very low base while liner companies remain in reasonable shape.

There is no point in false optimism but 2021 should definitely be a year of improvement — if not peace.