A run of major casualties at the start of this year is likely to result in the first hull claim in excess of $30m in three years for Scandinavian insurers, according to latest figures from the Nordic Association of Marine Insurers (Cefor).

The annual Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics released today back up anecdotal evidence that the low claims environment over recent years is coming to an end.

Cefor suggested 2018 could be the last year of low claims.

Helle Hammer, managing director of Cefor said: “2018 was the third consecutive year with an exceptionally low claim cost, but the start of 2019 could mark the end of this.

“Two of a number of severe casualties that occurred in the period January to March 2019 are partly covered by the Cefor market and may end the three-year period without claims in excess of $30m.”

Cefor does not name the casualties involved but one possible candidate could be the loss of the 147-metre pipe-layer Star Centurion (built 2002) which sank in the Singapore Strait in January this year following a collision. Noway’s Gard is the lead hull insurer of the vessel which is insured for $175m.

Cefor’s anaylsis of claims data also suggests there is a close relationship between a ship’s port state control detentions and its claims record. Cefor said that detentions can provide a clear indicator of future claims.

“Vessels that had been detained in a three-year period prior to a claim have a higher claims frequency across all age groups and types of casualties than vessels without detention (or detentions),” Hammer said.

“Detention data is thus a clear indicator of the risk of a vessel incurring a casualty and to understand the cause of potential future casualties, as these tend to be related to the causes of the detention of the vessel,” she added.

At Cefor’s annual general meeting Gard’s Svein Buvik stepped down as Cefor chairman. His replacement was named as Jan Limnell, commercial marine insurance director of Alandia Insurance.