UK broker Clarksons’ annual rate prediction challenge has shown shipping players were too bearish about 2022.
Every year, readers of the London shop’s Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited to submit their forecasts of the value of the cross-sector ClarkSea rate index at the start of November the following year.
Researcher Sarah Holden said: “After earnings in many shipping sectors firmed significantly in 2021, expectations a year ago were mixed. Overall, though, 2022 has turned out to be very strong, even if risks have built and trends across sectors are diverging.”
This time last year, the cross-sector ClarkSea Index reached more than $35,000 per day, up from around $15,000 at the start of 2021.
The rise came largely on the back of strong container ship and bulker markets.
Uncertainty over how long upside from congestion might last caused some mixed views from those making forecasts, however.
Guesses ranged from well above $40,000 per day to less than $20,000 per day.
The average estimate overall was $27,242.
“As it turned out, our participants on average weren’t too far off the mark,” Holden said.
On 4 November, the index was a “robust” $31,539 per day — 15% above the average prediction and down 12% from a year ago.
Within a few hundred dollars
The closest guess was $32,000, within 2% of the actual result.
“The index has remained at very firm levels throughout this last year, averaging $37,548 per day and spending 18 weeks between March and July above $40,000,” Holden said.
These levels were last seen at the height of the 2000s “supercycle”.
There has been a general softening since mid-2022, however.
Bulkers have had a disappointing second half, with average earnings so far 27% lower compared with the first six months, Holden said.
Container markets dropped sharply, but tanker earnings topped $50,000 per day in October.
VLGC rates are at their highest point since 2019 and LNG carriers are attracting record numbers.
