TAMARA DE GRUYTER

Area vice president for Europe and Africa, Wartsila Marine

Changing energy mix, modest trade growth, tightening environmental regulation — the world is in flux, and the 2020s will see us integrating solutions in our arsenal to enable sustainable profitability for our customers.

We have work to do to meet the IMO’s emissions reduction targets. A combination of data, energy-saving technologies and broader collaboration can see us reaching them. But the single biggest contributor to lowering emissions is fuel choice.

We are testing and developing combustion-engine technologies to integrate the use of alternative carbon-neutral fuels, such as blends of LNG plus hydrogen, methanol and ammonia. Since vessels built today will still be in operation 30 years from now, fuel flexibility is just so important for derisking today’s investment decisions. LNG presents the best route to decarbonisation, transitioning from fossil-LNG to bio and synthetic-LNG. Our engines can accommodate this transition, but we are also ready for other fuels as and when the infrastructure and regulatory framework has been established.

Since vessels built today will still be in operation 30 years from now, fuel flexibility is just so important for de-risking today’s investment decisions.

We are bringing to life a Smart Marine Ecosystem, whereby a matrix of asset, energy and voyage management solutions can optimise everything that happens throughout the ship’s life cycle.

Wartsila’s Fleet Operations Solution provides an online infrastructure to enable 360° ship-to-shore reporting and fleet performance management. This is a retrofittable full-stack system built to combine individual processes that are otherwise separated, to optimise the planning, weather routing, fuel consumption, and speed of vessels and maximise the efficiency of our customers’ fleets. We’re also piloting the solution with ports to enable just-in-time arrival to berth.

We’re taking steps toward realising the full commercial potential of autonomous vessels. For example, through the provision of docking sensors, dynamic positioning and automation technology, our Smart Manoeuvre Suite can enable hands-off operation to mitigate human error.

Our first AI-driven service solution, Wartsila Expert Insight, has hit the market. This is a predictive maintenance solution that utilises AI and advanced diagnostics to process massive amounts of machinery data accurately in real time. Experts can remotely review anomalies highlighted by the AI to see which are indicative of harmful developments. This saves time and money for our customers by reducing down time and the cost of unplanned maintenance.

So, we will be ushering in the new decade with commitment to pushing the clean fuel agenda and laying the foundations for a Smart Marine Ecosystem where the potential that lies dormant within data is freed to overcome the restrictions of today to secure sustainable growth tomorrow.

Hu Keyi, science and technology committee leader at China's Jiangnan Shipyard Photo: Jiangnan Shipyard

HU KEYI

Science and technology committee leader, Jiangnan Shipyard

For the decade to come, shipping and shipbuilding companies will pay more attention to green ships and relevant lower emissions solutions. Autonomous and unmanned ships may also be popular.

Shipbuilders and equipment makers have started marketing their green ship proposals, but most shipowners are carefully considering their options regarding three solutions — compliant oil, scrubbers and alternative gas-based fuels. But in the 2020s, alternative fuels may extend to ammonia, methanol and hydrogen.

Ship operators are reluctant to incur the extra costs of green ships and higher initial outlay for alternative gas-based fuels.

How to mitigate the cost impact from compliance with new environmental regulations is a challenge faced by shipbuilders. Shipbuilders will have to develop new energy-saving technical solutions and to take advantage of opportunities offered by digitalisation and intelligent manufacturing. Shipbuilders should clearly recognise that a massive upscaling of resources will need to be dedicated to this important target.

Meanwhile, certain investments are also needed from other players to develop adequate technology to implement sustainable shipping. All players in the maritime circle are currently facing common challenges to remain profitable. I think all parties have to make a joint effort to address these core problems and thereby to create the conditions to forcefully tackle maritime sustainability.

SY Park, chief operating officer and senior executive vice president at Hyundai Heavy Industries Photo: Hyundai Heavy Industries

SY PARK

Chief operating officer and senior executive vice president, Hyundai Heavy Industries

In the coming years we might be faced with various challenges, such as prolonged global economic uncertainty arising from the escalating US-China trade war and a no-deal Brexit; fluctuating exchange rates, which may affect the growth of world economy; and ongoing disputes surrounding the IMO’s greenhouse gas regulations, all of which can combine to have a negative impact on the buyers’ investments in newbuilding orders.

Furthermore, the recent establishment of the merged China State Shipbuilding Corp and the consolidation of Japanese shipyards will be another challenge to South Korean shipbuilders, including us.

However, we also expect that some favourable opportunities will present themselves in the next few years — for example, a recovery of freight rates, implementation of the IMO 2020 SOx regulations and other new regulations that we hope will facilitate scrapping of old vessels, and growing demand in the LNG carrier newbuilding market.

In addition, new demand for eco-friendly vessels, such as LNG, methane, ethane and LPG-fuelled vessels, may serve as newbuilding momentum, as it is expected to buoy buyers’ investment sentiment.

In order to cope with these challenges and opportunities in 2020s, our company will make continued efforts to expand our current leading position in the shipbuilding market, especially for high value-added vessels. Also, we will strive to concentrate on further upgrading our cutting-edge technology.

PATRICK MORRISON

Director and global head of newbuilding, Arrow Shipbroking Group

Dual fuel LNG already dominates the newbuilding headlines and will be a significant propulsion alternative over the next half decade, but it should be assessed on its true merits, which are simply the economic benefits of gas versus other marine fuel solutions.

Patrick Morrison of Arrow Shipbroking Group Photo: Arrow Shipbroking

It is still a hydrocarbon, with ‘well to wake’ emissions only a little cleaner than marine diesel; not the holy grail some might have one believe.

And, as governments and regulators wise up to the environmental impact of LNG, under pressure from Greta Thunberg and her generation, I do not expect LNG to escape the same CO2 regulations as marine diesel.

Even the likes of the EIB [European Investment Bank] is planning to phase out lending to fossil fuel projects by 2021.

This includes mainstream gas-fired power plants and is the first time any major lender has looked at ceasing lending to natural gas projects because of climate change concerns.

I’m playing devil’s advocate, as we still believe gas has a future, but it will not be the final answer and not the only solution.

At Arrow, we are both working with LNG dual fuel and we are partnering with people looking for solutions beyond LNG.

Takashi Nakabe, president of Onomichi Dockyard Photo: Onomichi Dockyard

TAKASHI NAKABE

President, Onomichi Dockyard

The newbuilding market did not meet expectations last year because of the IMO 2020 SOx regulation. Every shipowner and ship operator is trying to find the best solution to this regulation and, as a result, shipbuilding companies are left waiting for their decisions.

Shipbuilders’ costs will increase when applying new environmental regulations. But the shipping market is not reflecting the appropriate price for building new ships.

Despite all these, new regulations will still be applied after 2020.

Looking ahead to the future, we at Onomichi Dockyard have been working several years on marine gasoil [MGO] mono-fuel engines as our new design and new concept. It has cost savings on energy and crew.

MGO mono-fuel engines can save around 10% fuel consumption compared to normal heavy fuel-burning engines with scrubbers. Ship operators can also save on bunker fuel used in heating heavy fuel and using low-sulphur fuel oil in port.

Crew can be spared some hard work caused by using heavy fuel oil, including maintenance of purifiers, boilers and heating systems.

We hope MGO mono-fuel will solve shipowners' and ship operators' concerns. We believe our duty is to provide necessary help and the best solution for safe operations and voyages through our newbuilding vessels.

This is part of a multi-sector series on shipping industry outlook for the decade ahead. Read the full report in this week's print edition.