A trend that has seen crude tankers taking clean petroleum product (CPP) cargoes on their maiden voyages is showing no signs of slowing down.

Some 42 VLCCs and 33 suezmaxes are set for delivery this year and muted improvement is expected for crude tanker rates. That means some of those ships will continue to pick up cargoes normally moved on LR2s instead of ballasting to their first destination, Vortexa analyst Ioannis Papadimitriou said in a note published on Thursday.

“Even if we see a smaller uptake of CPP cargoes on crude tankers relative to the total vessel deliveries, the volumes could match or more likely outperform 2021 levels,” he said.

Papadimitriou said about 10m tonnes of product cargoes were moved from east to west on crude tankers last year, which would fill between 85 and 110 fully-laden LR2s.

Many of those voyages happened in the first half of the year, data from the oil and gas data outfit showed, falling from 16 in April to two shipments in December.

Papadimitriou attributed this to a decline in crude tanker deliveries in the back half of the year, with a corresponding rise in LR2 activity to pick up the slack.

On a percentage basis, 55% of VLCCs delivered in the first half of 2021 were involved in a CPP shipment, slipping to 46% in the second half.

The analyst suggested there were some indications there would be fewer crude tankers butting into product trades in 2022 with crude exports set to rise and the east-west arbitrage for products not looking as strong.

But in January, Vortexa data shows three suezmax tankers are heading towards either Sikka or Singapore, suggesting they would be loading diesel with a VLCC signalling Singapore as well.

Fleet growth alongside a slow return for oil demand suggests 2022 will be another difficult year for tanker owners.

So far, both crude and product tanker rates have slid to open the year.

On Thursday, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell a point to 691 after ending last year at 786.

The Baltic Clean Tanker Index meanwhile slipped nine points to 558 from 788 at the close of 2021.