Not even a prolonged Russia-Ukraine war can derail the coming tanker “golden age”, Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS Group) said.
The French broker said tanker earnings will be impacted should the conflict stretch beyond 2025, but it did not expect rates to crater as the forecasted multi-year improvement is driven by fundamental factors.
“It should be noted that the anticipated ‘golden age’ for crude tanker earnings is not significantly affected as this will be being largely driven by fleet-side and macro factors rather than by Russia,” BRS Group said in a note published on Tuesday.
“However, this will undoubtedly take some of the gloss off earnings.”
Many expect rising global demand following the Covid-19 pandemic and a low orderbook will help propel tanker markets forward after several years of poor earnings. A longer war will still see better performance, though VLCCs, suezmaxes and aframaxes would still take a dip, BRS said.
Meanwhile, European refineries would stay open as the continent collectively shuns Russian oil and products, lending support to long-haul LR tanker demand from the Middle East and Asia.
“The jury is still out concerning whether MRs will receive a boost to tonne-mile demand as Russia ships more of its refined products to the non-OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development],” BRS said,
“This is driven by the uncertainty over whether a ban on EU companies (and potentially those based in the UK) from insuring and reinsuring tankers carrying Russian oil will be introduced. Assuming that a ban is introduced, and that Russian clean product exports slump, this will see global MR demand fall.”
