Greece's Signal Group sees greater optimism in the VLCC sector as the number of tankers available to load in the Middle East Gulf diminishes rapidly.
The artificial intelligence chartering platform said this factor, coupled with a demand recovery, led to firmer sentiment about rates in the final two months of 2021.
At Saudi Arabia's key Ras Tanura port — the world's biggest crude loading facility — Signal identified a declining number of vessels available to load from the beginning of November.
About 60 ships have been fighting for cargoes since then, compared with more than 100 vessels at the beginning of August.
The reasons for this decline are hard to pin down, but a lot depends on what other spot opportunities owners are chasing due to demand elsewhere.
In the aframax segment, the supply trend is also heading downwards in the Mediterranean and Baltic.
But for suezmaxes, Signal envisages an increasing trend above the average for 2021 that will "push towards a weaker sentiment of freight rates".
In the LR2 Middle East trade, it said the market is again experiencing low numbers of vessels as rates see a "surprising" upward cycle.
Gradual recovery
The company believes crude tankers are going to face the impact on demand of fears from the Omicron Covid variant.
"However, the supply trend of December supports the gradual recovery of the tanker freight rates," it added.
Crude tankers performed at very weak levels during the second and third quarters of 2021.
Overall, last year will prove to be one of the worst for spot crude rates since 2009.
In the product segment, November shifted the sentiment to stronger rates, with significant upward movements in Caribbean to US Gulf rates for panamaxes and for MR1s cross-Mediterranean.
Clarksons Platou Securities said tankers had started 2022 "softly", although Opec+ plans to boost oil production signal a gradual improvement on the way.
VLCC spot rates averaged just $7,000 per day in 2021, the investment bank calculated.
Eco-ships earned $13,000 per day, however, and those equipped with scrubbers had spot averages of $16,000, showcasing the wide divergence in earnings between vessels within the same class.
"We expect a gradual improvement in spot rates as we proceed through the next few months, and rising ship values are providing owners with the flexibility to raise cash should they need it in the interim," Clarksons Platou said.
