Clarksons Research has revealed boxship deliveries will drop to their lowest level for more than 10 years in 2019.
It said there will be a "significant" slowdown to 0.8 million teu coming from yards this year, while the total for 2020 will be 1.1 million teu.
Recycling activity is projected to pick up during this period as well.
Clarksons Research is predicting fleet capacity growth at 2.6% and 3.3% respectively in 2019 and 2020 as a result.
Time out of service for scrubber retrofitting is expected to further limit growth — 1% of containership capacity is set to be absorbed by this.
Container trade growth is expected to remain relatively steady in 2019, at 3.8%, followed by 3.9% expansion in 2020.
"However, significant risks have built, including from trends in the global economy, economic trends in China, and from the as yet unresolved US-China ‘trade war’," it said.
"There are a range of outcomes, and the potential for a much ‘lower case’ demand scenario remains present; the risk factors need to be tracked closely."
Boxship fleet capacity expansion stood at 5.6% in 2018, with most of this accounted for by the largest ship sizes.
The 15,000-plus teu fleet increased by 33% in 2018, but its growth has slowed to just 0.5% in the first quarter of 2019.
30 ships scrapped
Deliveries have totalled 0.2 million teu so far this year, while 30 vessels have been scrapped.
A total of 1.5% of boxship fleet capacity stood idle in the early part of the second quarter.
"Overall, while supply growth outpaced demand expansion in 2018, the ‘base case’ outlook for the boxship sector remains cautiously positive," Clarksons said.
"With capacity growth projected to decelerate in 2019 and 2020, sector fundamentals look set to return to rebalancing."
It added: "Freight rate gains seem possible, though may prove hard won, while healthy regional trade expansion and limited capacity growth in the smaller and medium sizes could support improved charter market conditions."
