IMO 2020 rules will prompt owners to speed up boxship scrapping — but it hasn't happened yet.
Shipping consultancy Drewry said progress on recycling has been "slow thus far".
It said the lack of visibility regarding extra fuel costs associated with IMO 2020 is making it more difficult for lines to plan much further ahead.
"One such area of uncertainty is with demolitions," it added.
"Drewry has long expected that IMO 2020 will trigger much greater scrapping of containerships as many older and less fuel-efficient ships will be rendered uneconomic.
"The rapidly increasing move towards fitting exhaust scrubbers could force charter rates down for some ships that are not fitted with the system, potentially swelling the number of demolition candidates."
No cull yet
But owners have so far resisted a large cull.
Last year saw an eight-year low for boxship scrapping, with 120,000 teu sent to the breakers, Drewry said.
But there was an upturn in the fourth quarter and this has carried over into 2019.
So far this year, 90,000 teu has been taken out of the market, with the average age being about 22 years.
Drewry is forecasting the annual total will reach 300,000 teu — less than 2% of the world fleet.
"As the containership fleet replenishes with newbuilds and the age profile gets younger (currently averaging 12 years) the pool of obvious scrapping options is receding," the company said.
"Containerships typically depreciate over 25 years, so to really make a dent in the fleet total owners are going to have to swallow some additional write-offs by looking at younger vessels for scrapping."
It identifies 1.15 million teu of ships over 20 years old — "low hanging fruit available to be scrapped".
"Owners should get a move on," it added.
