Singapore-listed NOL refused to throw a blanket on the rumours last week, stating it was obliged to consider all options which optimised shareholder value.
In a report Monday morning Drewry said: “There are several obstacles to a full sale of NOL: its parent company is not under pressure to sell and is unlikely to accept a low price, there are few willing buyers, and its fleet is not an attraction.
“More likely, Temasek will remain as a substantial shareholder after either a direct stake sale or indirect stake sale through Lentor.”
The researcher said one good reason for Temasek to stick with NOL, described as little more than a speck on its investment portfolio, is to use the line and its G6 partners to utilise the new mega-port at Tuas.
Drewry also questions if there are willing buyers at the price Temasek would want, especially given the recent history of boxship consolidation.
“For another carrier to see gain value out of a takeover of NOL there would have to be very large cost synergies to reduce its losses and complementary markets to increase combined revenues,” the report said.
“It is worth remembering that the last two big container shipping M&A deals in 2005 – Maersk’s purchase of P&O Nedlloyd and Hapag-Lloyd’s takeover of CP Ships – both initially delivered much less than 1+1=2 so many lines will be wary.”
It notes the most likely suitor, OOCL, has just placed a $952m order for six 20,000-teu vessels and seems to be favouring organic growth.
“Maersk Line is another with deep enough pockets but both it and 2M partner MSC are already very close to the market share threshold allowed by EU competition regulators and even APL’s relatively small presence in the Asia-Europe trade could tip it over,” it added.
