The trade war between China and the US is already affecting container trading patterns.
Chinese shipments to the US are in decline, while container exports to North America from neighbouring nations are rising.
Transpacific lines have also begun deploying extra loaders ahead of an expected rush of shipments to beat the possible imposition of additional US tariffs on Chinese goods.
According to the Freightos Baltic Index, rates rose by 16% on Shanghai-Los Angeles trades in the first 10 days of June to $1,461 per 40-foot container (feu), due to a freight rate increase of about $250 per feu imposed by liner operators on 1 June.
“The increase stuck because of carrier discipline reducing vessel capacity, skipping ports of call and blanking sailings,” Freightos chief marketing officer Eytan Buchman said.
Figures from Alphaliner show container exports from China to the US fell by 6.5% in the first five months of the year, compared with the same period last year. Box volumes dropped from 4.1 million teu to 3.87 million teu.
China’s loss of container volumes has enabled South East Asian countries to pick up the slack. The big winner is Vietnam, which recorded a 30.7% increase in volumes to 564,000 teu, according to Alphaliner’s estimates. Carriers have instigated more calls at Vietnamese ports as a result.
Liner operators led by the Ocean Alliance — comprising CMA CGM, Cosco, Orient Overseas Container Line and Evergreen — cancelled transpacific sailings earlier this year in an effort to shore up rates.
“Carriers may soon be able to keep prices higher without removing capacity,” Buchman said. “Advance ordering resumed in May following [US] President [Donald] Trump’s threat to slap a tariff on all untaxed imports, and many of them are now close to being shipment-ready.”
Cutting capacity may have been an ineffectual gesture, as rival lines are stepping in to fill the void by deploying more loaders in the transpacific trades, Alphaliner said.
Maersk Line, Cosco, Mediterranean Shipping Co and CMA CGM are deploying extra ships, from feeder vessels to 8,000 teu.
Transpacific freight rates entered a new phase of volatility in May after the US raised duties on $200bn-worth of goods from China from 10% to 25%.
