Asset prices for capesize bulkers may improve by nearly one-third by the second half of 2023 in a market that keeps reaching new heights, according to an analyst.

The capesize 5TC, a spot-rate average weighted across five key routes, has skyrocketed 90% since 8 September to $77,035 per day on Monday, according to Baltic Exchange data.

It has also more than doubled from $34,293 a year ago.

Cleaves Securities noted that the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which is heavily influenced by capesize rates, hit 5,202 points on Friday for the first time since 25 September 2008.

"A major difference, however, was that asset prices were 244% higher back then," analyst Peter Michael Christensen wrote in a note.

A five-year-old capesize could fetch $153m at that time, before valuations plummeted 71% and the BDI dropped 81% to 663 points by December 2008, he wrote.

"Although we don't expect asset prices to hit anywhere near that same high this time around, we still see a 29% upside for capes in our base case, with an expected cyclical case in the second half of 2023."

Cleaves pointed out, however, that the paper market is lagging behind the physical market.

The forward freight agreement (FFA) rate for October improved 5% to $68,143 per day on Monday, while that for November gained 3.3% to $53,921 per day.

The FFA rate for December came in at $43,107 per day after picking up $1,461 per day since Friday.