S&P Platts Global has taken a bearish stance on dry bulk shipping over the next couple of months, citing market overperformance in the third quarter as the reason for its gloomy outlook.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) soared 86% from 16 July to 5,650 points on 7 October despite pockets of volatility amid escalating prices for iron ore and coal.

Capesizes, the main carriers of these commodities, saw the highest spot rates since 2008 as the Baltic Exchange's 5TC average across five benchmark routes in the sector tripled to $86,953 per day.

Those rates have since come back down to earth as commodity prices and demand waned, but Platts expects them to fall even further as a very result of them reaching the heavens two months ago.

"Platts Analytics believed dry bulk freight rates are in danger of overcorrecting downwards and are currently looking for support rate levels," it said on Friday in a monthly sector report.

"We maintain a bearish forecast on dry bulk freight rates for December and January 2022, despite the seasonal rise due to the winter period in the Northern Hemisphere. This is because rates overperformed during the third quarter of 2021 and are unlikely to reach these levels again over the winter period."

Since early-October's shocking high, the market has fallen to a more historical level as the BDI registered 3,171 points on Friday while 5TC came in at $38,096 per day.

But Platts expects the sector to tumble further despite others in the market expecting very tight supply to keep rates within the historical range.

Its analysts foresee the freight rate for shipping iron ore from West Australia to China, which fell $0.04 per tonne on Friday to $13.04 per tonne, to decline to $11.06 per tonne in January and to $9.77 per tonne in February.

Platts also expects its capesize T4 index to fall from time-charter equivalent earnings of $27,932 per day in December to $19,383 per day in January and $18,959 per day in February.

The firm predicts that dry bulk rates will continue to languish past February as the pandemic keeps downward pressure on dry bulk commodity imports, said Matthew Boyle, manager of global coal, Asia power and dry bulk freight at Platts Analytics.

"We have seen during the Southern Hemisphere winter there was an increase in coronavirus cases, and this is likely to be replicated in the Northern hemisphere winter," he told TradeWinds.

"With China slowing commodity demand activity until the end of the Winter Olympics, rates are likely to fall, despite the inflationary pressures of increased vessel congestion and tighter vessel availability."