But pointing to the “supply driven recession” of the pastfew years, Nordea head of shipping, offshore and oil services Hans ChristianKjelsrud warned against further over ordering.
“The return of volatility [in dry and tanker markets]shows overcapacity is perhaps not quite as big as we thought,” Kjelsrud said ina briefing today.
The dry bulk orderbook is equivalent to 20% of the currentfleet, down from an 80% peak in 2008 while crude tankers are now at 12%,compared with about 50%.
Ship values in these markets were slowly returning tohistorical averages, but he said “limited new ordering is key to the long term healthof the markets”.
Dry markets are dependent on developments in China, but Kjelsrud sees demand growth of 6-8% potentially outpacing supply of 4-5%.
Moderate overcapacity in crude tanker markets could becountered by structural changes to trading routes while similar changes to theproduct trades should give a couple of years of improved returns despite theheavy level of vessel ordering last year.
Nordea was the leading book runner for shipping loans in 2013, worth some $4.1bn of a total $80bn across the shipping markets.
