A rush of new buildings could throw off estimates of how big the scrubber-equipped fleet might be come 2020, manufacturers said on a Deutsche Bank conference call hosted by analyst Amit Mehrotra Wednesday.
CR Ocean Engineering president Nicholas Confuorto said he expects 4,000 ships, or 10% of the world's fleet, to be outfitted with the exhaust gas cleaning systems ahead of the IMO 2020 emissions regulations set to kick in 1 January.
The figure is in line with calculations from shipbroker Clarksons published in the last week.
But that number could be higher, as the number of scrubber manufacturers has swelled from just a few to 45.
"There are so many Chinese vendors that have entered the market [and aren't reporting orders], it could be more," Confuorto said.
Meanwhile, scrubber orders and installations are loaded in the near-term, said Wartsila general manager Kevin Humphreys.
He said his company's order book was filled up for 2019, and drops off in 2020 and 2021, accommodating first-movers.
He agreed on the 10% estimate, but said the ships outfitted with scrubbers are larger ships consuming just under a fifth of global fuel consumption.
"You're talking about an 80% drop in demand for heavy fuels come 1 January," Humphreys said.
"That's a big piece of the story and how it effects supply chains ... and fuel differentials."
He added that most shipowners were taking a wait and see approach.
Confuorto said he could see a second run on scrubbers once the spread between the high sulphur fuel, which scrubber-outfitted ships will burn, and the low sulphur fuel scrubber-less ships must use.
"What I'm expecting is toward the end of the year for people to start to realize once they start getting contracts for fuel for next year, we'll see another wave of scrubber installations at the beginning of the year," he said.
