Wartsila has warned that new retrofitting orders for scrubbers will now miss the IMO's 2020 deadline.
Roger Holm, the Finnish technology company's marine solutions president, said: "We are still seeing good activity, but if you haven't ordered now you are not going to get them for 1 January, so new orders will be delivered into the new regulations.
"The key question is will that have an impact, but it's too early to say.
"Of course over time it will go back to being a newbuilding market, but retrofitting will continue for years to come."
He added: "This is a peak and it's a challenge for the whole industry."
Earnings up
Wartsila's earnings have been lifted by a spate of gas carrier orders in the first quarter.
The company said net profit rose to EUR 59m ($65.8m) from EUR 57m in 2018, while revenue was up 8% to EUR 1.15bn.
The order intake decreased 6% to EUR 1.41bn, but the first three months were "solid" for its marine business, it said.
The orderbook for 2019 deliveries is EUR 3.28bn, with deliveries expected to be concentrated towards the latter part of the year.
Holm said: "I think we can be pleased with where we are. I think the gas sector will continue to be strong,
"In cruiseships we are seeing orders not just for our standard hardware but more for digital solutions as well."
New contracts rising
Wartsila won 227 contracts for new vessels in the period, up from 192 in 2018.
The market sentiment in the gas carrier segment continued to be positive, thanks to increasing demand for LNG and favourable short to long-term market trends for cleaner fuels.
Market conditions in container, tanker and bulk shipping were adversely affected by the continued uncertainty in world trade, it added.
Contracting activity was healthy in the cruise segment, supported by the need for modern capacity to match the anticipated growth in cruise passenger numbers.
In the ferry sector, investments were mainly related to fleet replacements.
The offshore market "continued to be challenging, due to the lower amount of investment decisions, the reactivation of existing fleets, and the current order book volumes," it said.
The company added: "Approaching deadlines relating to the 2020 global sulphur cap and the requirement for ballast water management systems are impacting vessel owners and operators.
The uncertainty over future pricing and availability of compliant fuels have led to an uptake of scrubber technology."
Product mix aids profit
CEO Jaako Eskola said the start of the year was marked by growth in sales, thanks partly to a rise in marine equipment deliveries.
"Profitability improved as a result of a more favourable sales mix within our services activities," he added.
In the marine industry, the pace of market recovery remains slow. Nevertheless, orders received...increased primarily because of improved demand in the gas carrier segment where we received several orders for gas handling systems and related technology.
"Despite this positive development, reduced activity in the energy markets resulted in a decline in group order intake."
