Financial ratings agency S&P Global Ratings has now placed nine of the 13 International Group of P&I Clubs on negative outlook.
The A-rated Swedish Club, Skuld, Britannia P&I and Steamship Mutual are the latest to be placed on negative.
The adjustments have been made in response to concerns over a sector-wide downturn in underwriting performance.
The Japan P&I Club is the only mutual currently on a positive outlook.
Serious doubts
S&P's analysts have serious doubts over whether the protection and indemnity clubs can continue to rely on investment income to cover their investment losses.
It is concerned that further underwriting losses could potentially put the AAA-rated capital adequacy of most P&I clubs at risk.
"I think considering we have nine of the clubs on negative outlook, the trend is probably negative on the sector, which is similar to our view on the global reinsurance sector for example," S&P Global credit analyst Mario Chakar said in a webcast.
"In our sector review for the P&I industry, we revised our industry risk to high, which is our highest or weakest assessment."
Chakar said there is some expectation that the efforts of P&I clubs to raise more premium will improve their balance sheets.
Although most clubs now have a negative outlook, he said the majority of the International Group mutuals are A rated.
The only P&I club to recently receive a positive change in its outlook is the London P&I Club. In early October, it announced a painful supplementary call for its members to protect its capital reserves.
London P&I has now had its outlook revised from negative to stable in recognition of the improvement in its capital adequacy that will result from the move.
Key driver
S&P primary credit analyst Robert Greensted said a key driver for the difficulties of the P&I clubs is the high cost of International Group pooled claims above $10m, which are shared between the clubs.
He said, in the current 2021/2022 policy year, pool claims are again heading for another record high.
"That is beginning to put pressure on many of the clubs we rate," he said.
He added that there had not been a rise in the number of pooled claims, but rather a few exceptionally expensive P&I claims.
He said he expected a "fairly significant" underwriting loss for the current policy year and that clubs would respond with double-digit increases in premium.
"We are expecting at least a 10% increase across the clubs for the 2022 renewal, but that figure could well go higher," he said. "We have already seen clubs going above that, but there will be a couple of clubs that will go significantly lower, and some clubs which might not increase at all, but the vast majority will go into double figures," he said.
Improved trading conditions in the bulker and containership market may make it easier for owners to pay the higher rates and help the clubs achieve their target.
"We could potentially see an easier conversation with the memberships than the clubs have had in the past in terms of getting these ratings through," Greensted said.
