Three days is a long time in shipping.

On Monday, Belgian owner Euronav revealed that John Fredriksen had bought a 5.5% stake in the tanker giant.

Analysts said the move was likely a bet on the tanker recovery, rather than a merger or takeover bid involving Fredriksen's Frontline.

But on Wednesday, the tanker tycoon's private Cyprus-based Famatown Finance told the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that the company now holds 9.8%, a stake worth $204m at the current price of $10.29 in the US.

This makes Fredriksen the biggest shareholder, outstripping Euronav's own 8.3% held in treasury stock.

Famatown spent $188.1m on the stock, meaning Fredriksen has already made a profit of $16m.

And the type of form used by Famatown could provide a clue as to the Frontline owner's intentions towards his rival, according to Clarksons Platou Securities.

The information was provided through a 13D filing, rather than the simpler 13G.

Speculation will only grow

Clarksons Platou analysts Frode Morkedal and Omar Nokta said this could support speculation about a merger, as a 13D filing may mean Fredriksen wants to talk to the Euronav board.

The Norwegian investment bank views the alternative 13G filing as more likely to indicate passive investor status, with no intention of exerting control.

The analysts also point to an interview Fredriksen gave to Norwegian daily Finansavisen in 2018, in which he said he is in favour of larger companies, as size gives increased opportunities both commercially and financially.

He also told the newspaper that having a smaller share in a larger entity would make it easier for future generations of his family to follow up on the ownership.

"I think the development may go that way. I am not saying that it must be like that, but that it is a possible solution," Fredriksen added at the time.

A 13D form must be filed when a person or group acquires more than 5% of any class of a company's equity shares.

Fredriksen's filing says the shares were acquired "for investment purposes".

But the form often indicates that a change of control, such as a hostile takeover or proxy fight, might be about to take place.

The filing says there are no plans or proposals for Euronav at this stage, but Fredriksen reserves the right to engage in discussions from time to time with the board on finances, strategy, control and assets.

Neither Euronav nor the Fredriksen group is so far commenting beyond public filings.

Hats off to Fredriksen

Pareto Securities' head of research Eirik Haavaldsen told Finansavisen he thinks Fredriksen is thinking long-term and strategically.

"Hats off. While the rest of the world is discussing whether it is a financial investment or not, John Fredriksen has acquired 10% of the company," he said.

"Again, he plays the cards openly without a hint of any ambush, and gets a nice seat at the table," Haavaldsen added.

"We still believe that a merged Euronav and Frontline will be a fantastic company, and that the way they are now proceeding increases the probability that it can happen," he said.

Euronav shares are up about 20% in the past month in both the US and Brussels.