Top-level shipowning opinion is split on whether now is the time to buy vessels or wait just a little bit longer.
A straw poll of seven owners appearing at the Posidonia TradeWinds Shipowners Forum produced three “buys”, three “holds” and one abstention.
The decisive ones who would buy now were Evangelos Marinakis of Capital Maritime, Angeliki Frangou of Navios and Robert Burke of Ridgebury Tankers.
By contrast, Philippe Louis-Dreyfus, Athanasios Martinos of Eastern Mediterranean and Paddy Rodgers of Euronav placed themselves in the conservative camp.
Nikolas Tsakos skillfully dodged the question.
The question asked by moderator Frank Dunn of Watson Farley & Williams was: “Is now the time to buy in shipping or is now the time to wait until the year-end and see what happens?"
Marinakis’s answer: “I think the entry point right now, especially for the dry and containers’ trade is extremely attractive, so buy.”
Burke beat the same drum: “I would suggest everybody sells, so we can buy cheaply.”
Frangou agreed that buying was right, provided one’s balance sheet can sustain the purchase and the acquired vessels match buyers’ existing fleet portfolio.
“The biggest buyers recently have been private, old money, so it’s a good opportunity… you’re in the right ZIP code [for a purchase] from the valuation point of view.”
Louis-Dreyfus said he was for buying “but not for the time being”.
“We should wait for some time and keep the money, whenever you have some,” he added.
“I would say, buy nothing except Euronav shares,” said Paddy Rodgers, CEO of Euronav.
Nikolas Tsakos: “There are segments of the business, perhaps dry and container, where we are looking to buy and we are buying but this is a free market. There are so many ships out there, keep buying and selling, but please don’t order newbuildings.”
Martinos sided with those who argue for waiting.
“Dry is at its lowest point ever, in my opinion, it may stay a little longer at low freight rates, but one doesn’t risk buying right now,” he said, adding a recent personal experience: “Personally, I bought a little early, a modern Japanese vessel, so I may have lost 20% since then”.
Martinos added that it may make sense to buy now, but only for owners prepared to wait a long time before asset values rise.
“If I was an investor, I’d advise owners to buy dry bulk now and wait. They may have to wait -- a number of years.”
Asked to raise hands, an audience of over 400 participants to the forum appeared equally split.