Employers and unions have too much at stake to let the wage talks fail, according to shipmanagers and labour sources.

They are cutting it fine. A little over three months remain to reach a new deal after the collapse of talks in July, when union officials described the chances of a compromise as “remote”.

The International Bargaining Forum (IBF) collective bargaining agreement (CBA) is the largest and most influential in shipping. Its terms are also taken on by International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF) affiliates around the globe as the basis of local wage negotiations.

Although pay is central to the talks, it is believed that is not the cause of the failure to come to an agreement.

Sources suggest the sides have agreed in principle on a modest wage rise, reflecting market difficulties.

However, with the ITF losing out on the headline wage terms, it is understood to want to win other concessions that the employers are finding difficult to accept.

Taking it to the wire

With no date set for the next meeting, one labour relations expert suggests both sides are taking it to the wire as a negotiating tactic. “They’re just waiting to see who blinks first.”

Each side has a lot to lose if talks fail. The ITF would lose millions of dollars of income from the welfare fund it uses for the benefit of its members. It would also lose influence over about 5,600 ships.

For the employers, the IBF CBA has become the industry’s “go to” wage agreement to satisfy charterers and comply with the Maritime Labour Convention.

The uptake of IBF CBAs has increased 130% since 2010 in the expectation of the convention’s entry into force.

Not only would thousands of ships find themselves without an approved labour agreement should talks fail, but the future of the IBF itself would come into question.

Some Joint Negotiating Group employer members are understood to be unhappy with the progress of the current round of negotiations.