Shipyard output in 2018 is set to fall to the lowest level in 12 years and half the record figure set in 2011, according to Clarksons Research Services.
Researcher George Warner says 80.7 million dwt of new ships are expected to be delivered to the world fleet this year.
He says this would be only 49% of the capacity arriving in 2011, largely reflecting a 50% decline in the orderbook since that time.
This could mark 2018 deliveries as the lowest level in dwt terms since 2006, he explains.
New bulker deliveries are projected to reach 27.5 million dwt this year, which would be down by over one quarter on 2017 and 72% below the level set in 2011.
Warner notes that while new bulkers accounted for 61% of the tonnage delivered in 2011, they represent only 34% of the projected overall output for this year.
At the same time the amount of tanker tonnage penciled in to arrive this year is forecast to fall by 22% on 2017. The 30.1m dwt forecast for 2018 is also 27% below 2011, Warner said in a report.
The container market is expected to see an upturn in deliveries of 9% year-on-year, with the 1.3m teu forecast down only marginal compared with 2011, the researcher adds.
“Delivery trends have varied by sector in this period, with bulker output continuing to decline, while boxship and tanker output has followed a more uneven course,” Warner said.
“And with deliveries currently projected to soften again in 2019, shipyard output may be set to decline further before it sees a pick up.”
