Argentina’s imminent surge in oil production is set to give crude tankers a demand boost, according to shipbroker BRS Group.
The country’s shale boom is set to increase export capacity through to 2030, the company said.
Crude production has already risen to 369,000 barrels per day this year, as of August.
And tanker shipments are averaging above 110,000 bpd, up 20% from 2023, according to ship tracking data.
The share of exports carried on aframaxes has lifted to 31% this year, up from 4% last year, BRS said.
Conversely, the panamax/LR1 share has fallen to 36% from 74%.
The US is taking more oil, with Brazil in second place, but its share is declining.
Production could hit 1.45m bpd by 2030 for the country as a whole, BRS said.
Key to this is the Vaca Muerta — Spanish for dead cow — development .
Exports could eventually jump to close to 700,000 bpd, BRS believes.
This is more than an aframax worth of oil per day.
VLCCs coming into play
There will also be a new pipeline from Vaca Muerta to the Punta Colorada terminal.
Oil company YPF hopes to have this completed by 2026, adding the capacity to load VLCCs.
These bigger tankers could attract market share when full export capacity becomes available, BRS said.
UK broker Gibsons has said progress in South America’s refinery sector is failing to match up to development in its growing oil production, and the crude tanker sector could benefit.
The continent’s oil supply is expected to increase by 1.3m bpd by the end of the decade.
Virtually all of that is bound for export, since refining capacity will grow by only 100,000 bpd over the same period, the London shop said.
Guyana is playing a growing role and tiny Suriname is looking to follow, even as traditional exporters Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador face challenges.