VLCC owners have spent well under half of the past two decades with rates above $50,000 per day, proving spike level earnings are generally the exception not the rule, Clarksons says.
The shipbroker charted rates from the start of the century through until the end of June this year and found there were plenty of periods of low to moderate rate levels, as well as periods of spiky and super-cycle earnings.
“It’s the ‘days in the sunshine' when shipowners really ‘make hay’, and in the other times it’s they who take the risk of waiting for the better days to come around,” researcher Trevor Crowe said.
“This distribution is all down to the nature of the shipping supply and demand curves. It doesn’t make the business any easier at all, but it’s enough of a potential reward at the end of the day to keep your average optimist (or shipowner) interested.”
Crowe calculated that since 2000 VLCC rates have been above $100,000 per day just 5% of the time, and in the “hot zone” above $50,000 per day for only 35% of the period.
On the flip side, rates have been below $30,000 per day for 43% of the time this century, and less than $20,000 per day 28% of the time.
“The spread of earnings makes it clear that spike level earnings are generally the exception not the rule,” Crowe said.
