Clarksons Research has come out with a positive read on global shipping trade this year as Chinese demand bolsters the market.
Analyst David Whittaker said: “After a challenging 2022 and despite ongoing economic headwinds, global seaborne trade has swung back into positive territory in 2023 and is continuing to take steps forward.
“China, shipping’s largest market, has been a key driver of firmer trends — by tonnes — this year, while shifting trade patterns at a global level are also boosting tonne-mile demand.”
The research arm of UK shipbroker Clarksons is now projecting a 3.8% increase in global seaborne tonne-miles this year and a rise of 2.2% in tonnage terms.
“Risks remain, but this would outpace the 3.4% tonne-mile rebound seen in 2021 and would mark the firmest expansion since 2017,” Whittaker said.
He said it is “impressive” that after two major demand shocks in three years, the forecasts suggest tonne-mile trade across 2023 will sit 6% above 2019 levels.
Trade in tonnage terms will be 2% above the 2019 figure.
Global seaborne trade volumes declined by 0.4% overall in 2022 to 12bn tonnes amid macroeconomic headwinds, impacts from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and weak trends in China, the analyst pointed out.
Shifting trade patterns, notably in energy commodities as a result of the war in Ukraine, limited the tonne-mile impact to just -0.1% year-on-year.
“This year, however, even despite clear vulnerabilities in the world economy, trade volume trends have been more encouraging,” Whittaker said.
Monthly indicator looking positive
Clarksons’ monthly global seaborne trade indicator is seeing improvements, up 3% from last year across January to July.
A key driver has been Chinese import demand, Clarksons Research believes.
Total Chinese seaborne imports increased by a firm 14% between January and July, compared with the previous year.
Imports of iron ore are up 7% on the back of robust steel output and improved seaborne supply.
Shipments of coal into the country have risen 76%, albeit from a low base, and crude oil is up 17%, the company calculated.
