Tanker ordering is on the rise, but that does not appear to be keeping Kevin Mackay up at night.

The Teekay Tankers chief executive told analysts that he does not believe the recent uptick in tanker newbuilding deals will have a material impact on fleet supply in the medium term.

“The combination of a small orderbook and little spare shipyard capacity through mid-2026 virtually ensures low fleet growth over the next two to three years, with approximately 2% fleet growth expected this year, and negligible levels of fleet growth in both 2024 and 2025,” he said on a conference call to discuss the New York-listed shipowner’s first-quarter earnings.

Mackay said tanker demand growth should outweigh the rise in fleet supply over the period, and that should drive higher utilisation and extend rising spot rates.

Vancouver-based Teekay Tankers, a spin-off of Teekay Corp focused on midsize crude and product carriers, reported its best-ever quarterly profit of $169m in the first three months of the year.

That helped power the creation of a $0.25-per-share quarterly dividend, a $100m share repurchase programme and a special shareholder payout of $1 per share.

Mackay said the quarter saw the highest-ever spot rates for the first three months, and the second quarter shows similar strength, albeit with volatility.

Bookings so far in the present quarter, which started in April, are bringing in $62,400 per day for suezmax tankers and $58,500 per day for aframaxes.

US crude exports are at a record high, generating demand for aframax lightering off the US Gulf Coast to carry VLCC cargoes on long-haul voyages to Asia.

And Russian exports remain strong despite sanctions, rising to 3.4m barrels per day (bpd), up 500,000 bpd from the fourth quarter. Those volumes are primarily headed on long-haul voyages to India and China.

Teekay Tankers does not do business with Russia, but it benefits from shifting trade patterns as Europe imports its volumes from further afield.

“Overall, global oil demand remains on track to increase by 2m bpd this year, driven in large part by China’s economic recovery and increased travel following the relaxation of Covid-19 lockdowns,” Mackay said.

But he put more emphasis on the supply-side picture: “Fleet supply fundamentals remain in excellent shape.”