Rystad Energy has laid bare a potential shortage of shuttle tankers as oil volumes rise to 2030.

Demand in countries with robust offshore production and limited pipeline infrastructure is set to grow continuously in the coming years, a report from the research company claims.

Produced volumes in need of transport will grow to 3.3bn barrels per year before the end of the decade, jumping 32% from 2.5bn barrels in 2021, Rystad's figures show.

The analysis focuses on the five key shuttle tanker markets: Brazil, Canada, Norway, the UK and Russia.

In locations where subsea pipelines are unviable, shuttle tankers are crucial for moving liquids from wells to refineries and terminals.

Apart from minor dips in total utilisation across these countries in 2018 and 2021, shuttle tanker activity has increased year on year since 2013 and is expected to experience a compound annual growth rate of 3.5% between 2021 and 2030, the company argues.

"There is a need for a new influx of shuttle tankers to meet the increasing demand and replace some of the ageing capacity that will be taken out of service," said Oddmund Fore, senior vice president of energy service research with Rystad.

"Crude oil extraction will continue for many years to come."

New investments in offshore production are likely to continue building, ensuring a bright future for the shuttle tanker industry, Fore believes.

This specialist fleet consists of nearly 100 vessels in operation and a handful on order.

Of these, 25 work in the North Sea and the Norwegian side of the Barents Sea.

Although the North Sea market provides more diversification than other markets, Equinor and state-owned Petoro are responsible for more than 35% of the volumes shuttled off oilfields, Rystad calculates.

But Brazil is now the largest market, with 40 vessels and three times the production of the North Sea.

Experienced owners

Ingvild Saether is president and chief executive of Altera Infrastructure. Photo: Tom Haga/Altera Infrastructure

Knutsen NYK Offshore Tankers and Altera Infrastructure are two of the main shuttle tanker owners operating there.

They have decades of experience in the North Sea, helping create continuity and efficient operations in Brazil's deep waters, Rystad argues.

The Brazilian market is less diversified, with Petrobras handling 70% of offshore shuttle tanker production with vessels that are either chartered by the Brazilian state giant or international operators.

Overseas operators must leave Brazil every 90 days to meet local content regulations, but Petrobras can operate more efficiently with significantly more trips per vessel than its foreign competitors.

Rystad believes the North Sea will be a crucial driver for increased activity as a new investment spree follows the Norwegian government's tax regime, introduced in mid-2020, which is aimed at encouraging sanctioning activity to be registered by the end of 2022.

"Brazil has also been vocal about its ambitions to become more energy independent, with many wells to be drilled by 2030," it said.

"In addition, we see that a growing number of international players are entering the stage in Brazil with their stake in crude oil production."

This trend alone will drive shuttle tanker demand upwards as the vessel intensity per barrel produced is higher than that of Petrobras, the report argues.

Brazil, with its ultra-deepwater oilfields, will account for more than half the demand from 2026.

The surge in offshore production there has driven a big rise in the utilisation of shuttle tankers, with activity soaring by 54% from 695m barrels in 2013 to 1.07bn barrels last year.

A further increase of 72% is forecast by the end of 2030, when total volumes handled by shuttle tankers in Brazil will hit 1.84bn barrels, solidifying its position as the global leader in shuttle tanker activity, Rystad said.

But the Russian market is set to experience steady declines, almost halving to 122m barrels by 2030.