Opec+ has elected to stick with its relatively modest production increases, dashing hopes for a larger boost by some major economies and likely dampening hopes for a dramatic tanker-market recovery in the fourth quarter.

The stay-the-course approach with a plan that adds 400,000 barrels per day each month into 2022 spiked oil prices to their highest levels since 2014, as US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude hit $78.13 per barrel and Brent crude $81.77, both up 3% on Monday.

Fearnley Securities said: "While higher oil prices and the ongoing energy crunch likely added some uncertainty to the decision, the lack of political pressure and a wish to avoid volatility likely made this a relatively simple decision for the group, evident by the meeting reportedly only lasting 30 minutes."

However, analysts Peder Nicolai Jarlsby, Erik Gabriel Hovi and Ulrik Mannhart added that there is certainly potential for Opec+ to lift production over the coming months, though this would likely require sustained prices above the $80-per-barrel mark.

"Heightened volatility on both up/downside could also contribute to Opec+, altering its current output plan, they added.

This could be driven by a further rally in gas prices, leading to an oil switch.

As for tankers, the analysts said: "While volumes didn't get an additional boost this time around, keeping prices above the $80-per-barrel mark is likely to incentivise short-cycle capex, which should have positive repercussions further down the road."

Tanker shares fall

Tanker stocks were down in New York trading, with major names such as Frontline falling 4.7%, Nordic American Tankers down 3.5%, while Scorpio Tankers dropped 3.6% and Tsakos Energy Navigation shed 4.4%.

Even so, tanker listings were not faring as poorly as dry bulk and containership stocks, which appeared to continue to suffer from jitters over China demand prospects and increased trade-policy tensions.

Boxship lessor Danaos fell 13% in Monday trading in New York, while Israeli liner company Zim plunged more than 11.5%.

Star Bulk Carriers and Genco Shipping & Trading both plummeted more than 7%, Navios Maritime Partners 8.2% and Eagle Bulk Shipping 4% despite announcing a new dividend policy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had another bad day, reversing modest early gains to fall by nearly 1% to 34,002 at the close.

It is the tanker names, however, that are most in need of any unexpected stimulus after more than a year of trough-level rates, and the Opec+ call likely will produce little joy.

While the incremental 400,000 barrel boosts are continuing, cartel members ignored appeals from countries such as the US and India, which fear high oil prices will place a damper on recoveries from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Opec+ economists, on the other hand, were said to be deterred from diverging from the measured step-up by fears of yet another coronavirus wave being on the horizon, and prospects for declining demand in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, US shale-oil producers are in a poor position to pump more as a counterweight to high Opec+ prices as they have chosen to scale back their spending instead, leaving the cartel almost entirely in control of pricing, experts said.

"We will be monitoring the situation, as we know, demand usually falls in the fourth quarter, our plans on increasing (output) are even, we will be watching how the market will be balanced," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told Reuters.