VL rates have dropped from a $80,000 per day peak in July to less than half that figure today, with discharge delays in Asia and lower Saudi Arabian exports playing a part.
Frode Morkedal of Clarksons Platou Securities said: “In our view the recent freight rate downturn is mainly noise as fundamental fleet growth remains low and activity should revive once refiners exit fall maintenance in October.
“Given the usual transportation time-lag, freight activity should reasonably increase a month earlier, say mid-September.
“Interestingly, the forward freight market has not moved much and is pricing in VLCC rates of $59,000 daily for the fourth quarter 2015.”
Aiding Morkedal’s positive view is the suggestion floating storage could influence the market if IEA predictions that onshore storage facilities are close to capacity is accurate.
“All in all it looks likely the market could stay reasonably strong also next year despite the likely lower growth in oil volumes and rising net fleet growth,” Morkedal said.
