More than three-quarters of maritime professionals believe a strategic waterway or major port will be shut down within two years because of a cyber-attack, according to a new study.

Research by classification society DNV suggests the growing threat of attack is likely to result in problems such as grounded ships and collisions.

Nine in 10 of those asked believed that ship or fleet operations would likely be disrupted in the coming years — more than half expected cyber-attacks to cause physical injuries or deaths.

The findings, based on questionnaires to 800 industry players, reflect concerns about the security gaps created now that ships and systems are being linked to wider computer networks unlike in previous decades, the report — Maritime Cyber Priority 2023 — said.

It cited the case of a cyber-attack on oil terminals at the Port of Antwerp last year that affected the unloading of barges at the height of Europe’s energy crisis.

The industry has already been hit by major cyber-attacks including AP Moller-Maersk in 2017, which suffered losses of $300m after being hit by an attack that stopped it from processing shipping orders.

The attack was designed to look like a ransomware attack, where computers are locked until there is a payment of money, normally in the form of Bitcoin. But the NotPetya malware wiped Maersk’s files and affected its container line business.

Since then, Cosco, MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company, CMA CGM, the International Maritime Organization and DNV have all been hit by cyber-attacks.

Worst-case scenario

“Although events like these cause significant financial and reputational damage, arguably they don’t come close to being a worst-case scenario for a cyber incident in the sector today,” the report said.

It pointed out that the blockage of the Suez Canal by the 20,388-teu container ship Ever Given (built 2018) in March 2021 prevented $10bn of cargo every day from passing through the strategically vital waterway.

Experts said using real-time information broadcast from ships increased their efficiency but also their vulnerability to attack.

Jalal Bouhdada, a cyber-security expert at DNV, said the increased interconnection between ships and onshore technology meant that attacks on vessel systems were “likely to have a greater impact in the future”.

Fewer than one in five of those asked in the survey agreed that their organisation was well prepared for responding and recovering from a cyber-attack on vessels at sea.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has increased concerns of a state-led assault on computer systems, but the study found that ‘hacktivists’ remain the most likely source of a cyber-attack.

A commander in Germany’s navy told the report that ships had to be able to run their systems, reach port, load and unload without the use of digital systems to prevent the worst disruption from a cyber-attack.