Bulker futures took a nosedive on Monday, with November contracts for capesizes dropping 16.1% in a single day and the forward curve showing a gloomier forecast for the start of next year.
Capesize bulker forward freight agreements (FFAs) for next month plunged $2,625 on Monday to reach just over $13,600 per day, according to Braemar Atlantic Securities’ trading data.
On the Baltic Exchange, November contracts on the Capesize 5TC route basket dropped $1,832 on Monday to just over $14,100 per day, which represented a 6.5% drop from the same day of the prior week.
And the futures curve moved further downward for contracts well into next year, with Braemar contracts for the first quarter losing $500 on Monday to reach $7,050 per day.
Breakwave Advisors, an asset management firm that runs a dry-bulk exchange-traded fund, said on Twitter that Monday’s drop in the first-quarter contracts brings it to the second lowest level for this time of year in at least a decade.
The last time FFAs for the first quarter were this low at this time of the year was in the autumn of 2016, when they were worth just $6,000 per day.
“Current sentiment is hitting rock bottom,” Breakwave said on Twitter.
FFAs for midsize bulkers were also largely flashing red on Monday, with all futures in Braemar’s publicly available trading data moving downward except for November panamax contracts, whose rise of $1,150 to $17,000 per day was believed to be the result of a misreported trade.
The rest is red
But panamax contracts for the full fourth quarter plunged $1,000 to just under $17,000 per day, and all publicly displayed supramax contracts showed negative numbers.
As the futures curve drooped, spot markets remained quiet as holidays in Asia kept activity muted.
The Baltic Exchange’s Capesize 5TC, an average of spot earnings across five key routes, dipped 2.3% on Monday to reach $19,400 per day.
The exchange’s analysts said moving a capesize cargo of iron ore from Port Hedland in Western Australia to Qingdao, China, cost $9.30 per tonne, up from talk of $9 and $9.15 on Friday.
That lifted round-voyage spot earnings on the route to just over $13,200 per day, a 4.7% gain on Friday’s levels.
But Baltic Exchange data showed all other capesize routes in decline.
“Limited fresh activity surfaced from the Atlantic basin,” its analysts said. “Asia also had a slow start with various holidays in the region.”
Spot rate averages for panamax, supramax and handysize bulkers barely moved on Monday.
This story has been amended since publication to reflect that the rise in the November panamax contract was believed to be a misreported trade.
