The escalating trade war between the US and China is set to hit demand for thousands of dry bulk cargoes and millions of container shipments
Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at Copenhagen-based shipowner’s association Bimco, has crunched the numbers on the impact of a brewing total of $200bn in tariffs and found that more than 2,000 handymax cargoes and 2.9m teu will be affected overall.
More than 500 handymax cargoes and 600,000 teu have already been affected by the measures already in place he estimated. But the boxship market looks like taking the brunt of the impact of a series of additional tariffs now being lined up.
Tankers look like escaping with oil shipments so far kept off the tariff list.
The Bimco numbers will make difficult reading for some optimists who predicted that the trade war could even lengthen tonne miles and actually boost shipping.
However, speaking in London today, Sand said: “I don’t see any good developments out of the uncertainty caused by this trade war.”
As an example Sand said that dry bulker owners have now been left unsure of how to position their ships for the all important US soya bean export trade to China with the seasonal shipments set to kick off from now until the end of the year.
US soya bean exports make up around one third of the Chinese annual imports. “Brazil is ramping up soya bean production but it’s unlikely to be enough to make up for the US,” Sand said.
Some 85% of Chinese imports from the US are now affected by tariffs Sand estimated and 58% of US seaborne imports from China.
Looking to the longer term Sand said US LNG exporters will be concerned having invested heavily in liquefaction plants in the expectation of a growing trade to China.
He also pointed out the negative effects for global trade and the shipping markets from a protectionist policy in the US.
Bimco will release the report to members from tomorrow.
