Average capesize spot rates have fallen by almost 20% in the space of 10 days as the fourth quarter continues with more of a whimper than a boom.
Fixing activity by major miners in the Pacific remains steady, but the Atlantic market remains in the doldrums.
But now capesize owners must contend with the prospect of cargoes being split across two panamax bulkers as falling rates for the smaller vessels make it cheap enough to do so.
Baltic Exchange panellists on Monday deducted another $105 from their assessment of average capesize spot rates, weighted across five key routes.
This put the basket assessment at $21,673 per day.
The estimate has fallen steadily since hitting $26,777 per day on 15 October.
At that point, it had been hoped that the seasonal end-of-year restocking of iron ore and other hard commodities in China would give a strong finish to 2024 for capesizes.
But enquiry in the market has fallen away, especially in the Atlantic in Brazil and South Africa, according to brokers.
Pressure is also mounting on capesizes as panamax rates soften, making it economic to split a capesize cargo across two of the smaller vessels.
Average panamax rates fell to $9,614 per day on Monday, less than half of the capesize assessment, according to Baltic data.
Some charterers had begun enquiring last week about splitting capesize cargoes across panamaxes in the Atlantic, Clarksons Research said in a report on Friday.
Capesize demand in the Atlantic is lagging behind the Pacific, where there was a little more life at the end of last week.
Consistent fixing activity for Australian iron ore bound for China lifted Monday’s spot rate assessment for the voyage by $0.185 to $10.145 per tonne.
In contrast, the Brazil assessment has fallen each consecutive trading day since 15 October.
Lacklustre activity in the South Atlantic meant that the iron ore voyage from Brazil to China was assessed $0.285 lower on Monday at $23.09 per tonne.
The fresh round of rate assessments follows a week that Clarksons described as “challenging”.
Some Pacific charterers withdrew cargoes from the market last week “amid uncertainty around the rate outlook,” it added.
Mining giant Rio Tinto took another two capesizes on Friday for iron-ore voyages from Western Australia to China.
One vessel was booked at $10 per tonne and the other at $9.95 per tonne.
