Panamax bulker spot rates took their first drop in more than two weeks on Thursday, ending a rally that has seen the sector defy a dry bulk slump.
The dip came a day after a bloody Wednesday on the panamax forward freight agreement (FFA) market turned the futures curve in a downward direction.
The Baltic Exchange’s Panamax 5TC, a measure of spot earnings on five key benchmark routes in the sector, dipped 2.6% on Thursday to reach $18,800 per day, sliding from a two-week high of $19,300 per day.
The dip ended a rally that had seen rates rise from a nadir of just under $11,000 per day at the end of August.
The futures market offered a prelude to Thursday’s decline, with October contracts on the 5TC plummeting 10.5% in a single session to $17,800 per day and shifting the market firmly into backwardation, when futures are below spot rates.
The October contracts slipped another $182 on Thursday.
“The panamax market rally came to a shuddering halt today, following yesterday’s fallout from the FFAs and a host of fixtures and failures, the recently found confidence in the market was swiftly eroded as bids became vastly reduced,” Baltic Exchange analysts said on Thursday.
“Sources said owners were yet to reduce offers, but the bull market appeared to have stalled for now.”
Thursday saw a quiet Atlantic market but more resilience in the Pacific.
“The Atlantic returned a bit of a nothing day all in all with little happening but with cargo volume thin, pitted against a growing tonnage list the market is in need of some fresh enquiry and support to maintain recent levels,” Baltic Exchange analysts said.
Among the day’s charters, Navios Maritime Partners’ 76,600-dwt Navios Taurus (built 2005) fetched a fixture with an unnamed charterer for China-to-Indonesia round trip at $19,750 per day, according to Baltic Exchange data.
Ningbo Yipeng Shipping’s 76,100-dwt Yi Peng 5 (built 2001) scored a charter for a similar voyage at $17,500 per day.
Both are better than the last-done fixture on the route on Monday, when Huayang Maritime’s younger 75,500-dwt Huayang Endeavour (built 2013) fetched a charter at $14,000 per day.
Before Wednesday’s futures plunge and Thursday’s spot pullback, physical rates were rising and FFAs pointed toward a market peak in October as panamaxes continued to outperform larger capesizes and smaller supramaxes.
Mark Nugent, senior freight and commodities analyst at shipbroker Braemar, said that China’s demand, strong cargo liftings in less common trades and strong Australian grain shipments were supporting the sector’s resilience.
In a weekly report, he struck a positive tone for the future, as rising coal prices fail to deter major buyers from snapping up the commodity and demand for grain should be resilient even in the face of a potential economic downturn.
“On the whole, panamaxes remain well-positioned to avoid a prolonged downturn in rates given the commodities they are primarily exposed to,” Nugent wrote.
This article has been amended since publication to reflect Braemar’s rebranding.
