Pacific coal trades have been to the fore this year with a major growth in exports from Indonesia, Australia and Russia all enjoying expansion, reports SSY.
In contrast, the two major suppliers in the Atlantic, with the greatest exposure to European markets, Colombia and the US, have suffered the largest declines.
“Indonesia has been the headline story, with annual growth of 20mt to 229.5mt, despite rain-related disruption causing a ten-month low in June of 33.7mt,” said SSY.
India was the main driver of Indonesian export growth in the first five months of the year according to the latest available breakdown by destination, with shipments jumping 14mt to 56.9mt.
SSY estimates that the second quarter of 2019 was a quarterly record for Indian coal imports from all sources.
“Significantly, countries of South East Asia accounted for a large portion of the remaining growth from Indonesia,” it said.
Bolstered by a monthly all-time high for coking coal, SSY said Australian coal exports in June climbed to the highest level since 2016, which helped propel first half volumes up 5.9mt year-on-year to 193.5mt.
“Expansion has been in evidence for both coking and steam coal. The clear highlight, however, has been the dramatic leap in steam coal volumes to Vietnam from 0.6mt in the first half of 2018 to 4.7mt in the first six months of 2019, with June seeing a record 1.3mt shipped between the two countries,” said SSY.
The second quarter of 2019 was a quarterly record for Indian coal imports from all sources
SSY
Russia has also seen shipments to the major coal import markets of South and South East Asia rise.
This helped Russia post a 3.3mt year-on-year increase in coal exports in the first five months of 2019 to 70.7mt, according to SSY.
“Steam coal shipments to Vietnam have more than doubled to 1.3mt, while June was a record month for steam coal imports into India from Russia, exceeding 1mt for the first time,” the broker said.
There have also been reports of longhaul coal shipments to Asian markets from ports in the Atlantic basin.
Meanwhile, SSY said there are further expansion plans for ports on Russia’s Pacific Coast alongside increased investment in railcars to assist coal exporters to develop Asian markets.
Turning to areas of contraction, Colombian coal exports in the first half fell 5.8mt to 35.5mt, largely due to a slump in steam coal shipments to destinations in Europe and North Africa and the Mediterranean.
SSY said shipments on this route recorded their lowest first half for 13 years with just 16.4mt.
In contrast, Colombian exports to Asia experienced their strongest start to the year since 2010, with 5mt shipped in the first six months of the year.
A combination of competitive steam coal pricing in Colombia, combined with cheaper freight earlier in the year, created opportunities for long-haul trades, the broker said.
US coal exports, excluding those to Canada, dropped by 6.6mt year-on-year to 44.1mt in the first half of this year.
“Coking coal exports were down 2.3mt to 25mt, accompanied by a larger 4.3mt decline in steam coal exports to 19.1mt,” SSY said.
“While it is accurate to comment that transatlantic volumes have declined, coking coal exports to India also experienced a 1.4mt decrease.”
