The final countdown is on for capesize bulker asset prices, according to new analysis.
Data platform Maritime Strategies International thinks secondhand values are likely to peak within the next six months.
Plamen Natzkoff, MSI associate director of dry bulk commodities and freight, said: “A recent softening in year-over-year comparisons for both newbuild prices and vessel earnings could indicate early signs that the secondhand market may follow suit.
“This suggests that prices may continue to rise year-over-year in the near term, albeit at a slower pace, but could start to decline within six months, implying a peak in asset prices around the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025.”
Newbuilding and secondhand price cycles have broadly tracked each other over the past three years, despite lagging behind the bulker earnings cycle, MSI said.
The platform said the strength of freight earnings is most meaningful for older vessels, “slightly advancing the peaks and troughs of older asset values” when compared with younger ships.
Prices and demand for secondhand capesizes remain firm for now.
The price for a five-year-old vessel remains above $60m, a level not seen in almost 15 years, according to MSI.
Prices for older ships are close to their 2022 peaks and 18-year-old capesizes have changed hands for over $20m.
High prices for younger vessels are being supported by rising newbuilding markets.
The second quarter saw the highest quarterly level of capesize ordering since the same period in 2021, MSI said.
Some 4.4m dwt was ordered during the second quarter, up by one-third when compared with the first three months of 2024.
In stark contrast, just 160,000 dwt of handysize tonnage was contracted during the period.
Transaction volumes are nearly 25% higher this year to date than in the same period in 2023, according to MSI data.
