Mining giant Rio Tinto expects iron ore shipments in 2023 to be in the same range as this year.
It expects to ship between 320m tonnes and 335m tonnes next year, according to figures released on Wednesday.
The producer reiterated guidance for exports at the low end of the same range in 2022.
The Anglo-Australian company said guidance on shipments from Pilbara, Western Australia remains “subject to risks around commissioning and ramp-up of new mines and management of cultural heritage”.
Vivek Tulpule, head of economics & markets at Rio Tinto, told a London investor seminar that the company expects broadly flat future growth for primary steel demand “as India and Asia take over from China in terms of absolute growth”.
Iron ore prices jumped 25% in November amid signs that China was preparing to loosen its restrictive zero-Covid policies.
“Iron ore was dragged higher as sentiment was buoyed by the apparent shift in China’s zero-Covid strategy,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank.
“However, weakness in the property sector persists. New home sales by the 100 biggest producer developers dropped by 26% year on year ... in November.”
Breakwave Advisors founder John Kartsonas told TradeWinds earlier this week that the zero-Covid policy has greatly affected economic activity in China, including real estate development, infrastructure spending and general construction activity, leading to a slowdown in commodity imports.
“A potential relaxation of such strict Covid measures could lead to a revival of economic activity, leading to increased commodity demand and thus imports into the country,” he said.
“Such a development will positively affect shipping, as demand for ships to transport such commodities will increase.”
China’s imports of iron ore from Australia were up 3.5% in the first 10 months of 2022 to 609.6m tonnes, according to Italian shipbroker Banchero Costa. Australia accounted for more than 82% of China’s imports.
While this is an increase on the 589.2m tonnes imported in 2021, it is below the all-time record of 614.8m tonnes shipped by Australia to China between January and October 2020.
